News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/XtydfV5wS6 https://t.co/Iw9haaHAnn
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sr63f https://t.co/raO3gCGqQ6
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/rWVlBs6H3c
  • The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to sway the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve’s blackout period as the central bank braces for a transitory rise in inflation. Get your weekly $USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/JTuP7CLlyi https://t.co/tOvqn3Gdpc
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/s5dn4ZKnku
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACyvdZ https://t.co/6VjW5FEiQW
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/wXSWo1JygD https://t.co/vWVaSEQTXT
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/9kfBu04auM
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here: https://t.co/lgDf5ddzFV https://t.co/8GJ6OQYgnW
  • Bitcoin (BTC) started the day on the front foot on the Twitter news before the latest China crypto ban hammered the market lower. Get your weekly crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here: https://t.co/ZKHGXeVhsR https://t.co/QSltMQml6N
S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD, Technical Analysis, Retail Trader Positioning - Talking Points

  • Retail signals hint the S&P 500 and Dow Jones may rise ahead
  • This follows bounces from rising support from late-March 2020
  • AUD/USD risks extending losses, keep eyes on the 50-day SMA

In this week’s session on IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), I discussed the outlook for the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Australian Dollar. IGCS is typically a contrarian indicator. For further analysis of where these may go, alongside commentary on the Euro and New Zealand Dollar, check out the recording above.

S&P 500 Sentiment Outlook - Bullish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 34% of retail investors are net long the S&P 500. Upside exposure has decreased by 14.70% and 2.38% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

S&P 500 futures bounced off long-term rising support going back to late March. While this has maintained the dominant upside bias, a period of consolidation may be ahead as prices test the 3824 – 3862 resistance zone. Keep a close eye on RSI, diverging momentum risks preceding another turn lower.

S&P 500 Futures Daily Chart

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

S&P 500 Chart Created in Trading View

Dow Jones Sentiment Outlook - Bullish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 31% of retail traders are net long the Dow Jones. Upside exposure has decreased by 30.89% and 8.96% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Dow Jones futures have also bounced off rising support from late March. Before that however, prices broke under a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern with some degree of follow-through. Overturning the downside signal from the wedge entails uptrend resumption, pushing above resistance at 31188.

Dow Jones Futures Daily Chart

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

Dow Jones Chart Created in Trading View

Australian Dollar Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 49.32% of retail investors are net long AUD/USD. Upside exposure has increased by 3.66% and 20.91% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net short.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

Recent losses in AUD/USD have brought the pair to test the 50-day Simple Moving Averaged (SMA). This follows a break under the 20-day one. If the former breaks, the Aussie risks extending losses towards the 0.7343 – 0.7413 inflection zone. Guiding the pair lower appears to be a falling trendline from early January.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

AUD/USD Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from February 2nd Report

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES