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S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD, Technical Analysis, Retail Trader Positioning - Talking Points

  • Retail signals hint the S&P 500 and Dow Jones may rise ahead
  • This follows bounces from rising support from late-March 2020
  • AUD/USD risks extending losses, keep eyes on the 50-day SMA
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In this week’s session on IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), I discussed the outlook for the S&P 500, Dow Jones and Australian Dollar. IGCS is typically a contrarian indicator. For further analysis of where these may go, alongside commentary on the Euro and New Zealand Dollar, check out the recording above.

S&P 500 Sentiment Outlook - Bullish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 34% of retail investors are net long the S&P 500. Upside exposure has decreased by 14.70% and 2.38% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

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S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

S&P 500 futures bounced off long-term rising support going back to late March. While this has maintained the dominant upside bias, a period of consolidation may be ahead as prices test the 3824 – 3862 resistance zone. Keep a close eye on RSI, diverging momentum risks preceding another turn lower.

S&P 500 Futures Daily Chart

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

S&P 500 Chart Created in Trading View

Dow Jones Sentiment Outlook - Bullish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 31% of retail traders are net long the Dow Jones. Upside exposure has decreased by 30.89% and 8.96% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

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S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Dow Jones futures have also bounced off rising support from late March. Before that however, prices broke under a bearish Rising Wedge chart pattern with some degree of follow-through. Overturning the downside signal from the wedge entails uptrend resumption, pushing above resistance at 31188.

Dow Jones Futures Daily Chart

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

Dow Jones Chart Created in Trading View

Australian Dollar Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that roughly 49.32% of retail investors are net long AUD/USD. Upside exposure has increased by 3.66% and 20.91% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net short.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

Recent losses in AUD/USD have brought the pair to test the 50-day Simple Moving Averaged (SMA). This follows a break under the 20-day one. If the former breaks, the Aussie risks extending losses towards the 0.7343 – 0.7413 inflection zone. Guiding the pair lower appears to be a falling trendline from early January.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

S&P 500, Dow Jones, AUD/USD Forecast: Retail Trading Signals Analyzed

AUD/USD Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from February 2nd Report

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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