News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • There are three major forex trading sessions which comprise the 24-hour market: the London session, the US session and the Asian session. Learn about the characteristics of each session here: https://t.co/reRmDdK93P https://t.co/ZE0Hgn9PCM
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out: https://t.co/YY3ePT7Yu8 https://t.co/GFx3b1W0OD
  • RBNZ's Hawkesby talking "considered steps" when setting monetary policy, leaning towards 25bps - With money markets pricing in 31bps worth of tightening at the October meeting. Room for disappointment. https://t.co/C7DHnPIeuU https://t.co/K2835aP57Z
  • Gold has plunged nearly 5% off the Monthly high with the sell-off now probing key weekly support here at 1738/47- looking for a pivot here with the Fed interest rate decision on tap. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @MBForex here:https://t.co/Vnxi4143uT https://t.co/zTpqrFIZfk
  • RBNZ: - We have benefitted from a robust rebound in China, our main trading partner - The interruption to the economy's supply side has lasted longer than expected
  • RBNZ: - Vaccination program has aided a stronger-than-expected rebound in the global economy - Demand for our exports has fared better than previous recessions
  • Between the volatile risk trend picture at the moment along with the Fed rate decision and expected 100bp hike from the Brazilian central bank both on Wednesday, $USDBRL is going to be a very interesting pair to watch...
  • RT @EricBalchunas: $SPY traded more than the Top 5 stocks combined. Just when you think $SPY is fading away like an aging legend you realiz…
  • Bitcoin sharply lower on the day, but well off session lows around $42,500 $BTCUSD #Bitcoin https://t.co/mPiZMs8eYH
  • You know what index didn't suffer an overtly threatening reversal this past session? The Russell 2000. It didn't continue the same steady climb through 2021 that the Dow, SPX and Nasdaq enjoyed; so not as much excess premium https://t.co/ieHojAC7b5
S&P 500, Dow Jones, Crude Oil Outlook: Retail Bets Supporting their Advances?

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Crude Oil Outlook: Retail Bets Supporting their Advances?

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Crude Oil, Trader Positioning - Talking Points

Advertisement

In this week’s webinar on IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), I discussed the outlook for the S&P 500, Dow Jones and crude oil prices. IGCS is typically a contrarian indicator. Below is a technical breakdown of the assets I covered. For a deeper dive into this as well as fundamental analysis, check out the recording above. In that video, I also discussed the outlook for GBP/USD and gold starting around the 31-minute mark.

S&P 500 Sentiment Outlook - Mixed

The IGCS gauge implies that about 41% of retail investors are net long the S&P 500. Upside exposure has fallen 9.52% over a daily basis while increasing 7.81% over a weekly period. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a mixed trading bias.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Crude Oil Outlook: Retail Bets Supporting their Advances?

S&P 500 Technical Analysis

S&P 500 futures are aiming to test the November 9th high at 3668 after prices pushed above the 3587 – 3541 resistance zone. However, negative RSI divergence shows that upside momentum is fading which can precede a turn lower. In such a case, keep a close eye on the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) for support.

S&P 500 Futures – Daily Chart

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Crude Oil Outlook: Retail Bets Supporting their Advances?

S&P 500 Chart Created in Trading View

Dow Jones Sentiment Outlook - Bullish

The IGCS gauge shows that about 30% of retail investors are net long the Dow Jones. Downside exposure has increased by 37.76% and 14.18% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Crude Oil Outlook: Retail Bets Supporting their Advances?

Dow Jones Technical Analysis

Dow Jones futures are aiming to close above the November 9th high at 30000, opening the door to venturing into record-high territory. Here there is also negative RSI divergence, which warns that momentum is fading. A turn lower would place the focus on the 20-day SMA which may reinstate the focus to the upside.

Dow Jones Futures – Daily Chart

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Crude Oil Outlook: Retail Bets Supporting their Advances?

Dow Jones Chart Created in Trading View

Crude Oil Sentiment Outlook - Bullish

The IGCS gauge shows that about 39% of retail traders are net long crude oil prices. Upside exposure has decreased by 4.31% and 18.39% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives a stronger bullish contrarian trading bias.

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Crude Oil Outlook: Retail Bets Supporting their Advances?

Crude Oil Technical Analysis

WTI crude oil closed at its highest since early March, pushing above the key 41.60 – 43.75 resistance zone. Prices are looking to confirm the breakout, eyeing the 49.42 inflection point from early February. The short-term rising trendline from late October seems to be maintaining the upside narrative.

WTI Daily Chart

S&P 500, Dow Jones, Crude Oil Outlook: Retail Bets Supporting their Advances?

Crude Oil Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from November 25th Report

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES