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  • ...but before you write off H&S patterns because more have fallen apart rather than catalyzed lately, consider the monthly chart of $AUDUSD as well. That 0.8000-0.7925 zone is no joke as its historical midpoint, trendine and other technical points confluence https://t.co/dB6edmmA1d
  • While there are other Dollar pairs getting more attention lately, I think $AUDUSD deserve a spot in the rotation. It's currently working out whether it is going to abide 2021's range as a consolidation reversal risk (H&S pattern)... https://t.co/M7dG0a8Isw
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.31% Oil - US Crude: -0.18% Silver: -0.50% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/AS3CtSNbr4
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  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 88.77%, while traders in Wall Street are at opposite extremes with 78.12%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/wI1kMvJkwU
  • The price of gold extends the series of higher highs and lows from the previous week even though the 10-Year US Treasury yield retraces the decline following the US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report. Get your $XAUUSD market update from @DavidJSong here:https://t.co/kyW7ukihdY https://t.co/keRXgNxmyp
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AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Will Retail Traders Boost Upside Exposure?

AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Will Retail Traders Boost Upside Exposure?

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD, Trader Positioning - Talking Points

  • Will AUD/USD extend losses, inspiring upside exposure in retail investors?
  • EUR/USD could fall as net-long bets accumulate after bearish technical cues
  • GBP/USD also at risk to a turn lower after rejecting key resistance recently
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In this week’s webinar on IG Client Sentiment (IGCS), I discussed the outlook for AUD/USD, EUR/USD and GBP/USD. IGCS is a contrarian indicator. For a deeper dive into what this means and for fundamental analysis, check out the recording of the session above where I also outlined the road ahead for NZD/USD and gold prices starting around the 31-minute mark.

Australian Dollar Sentiment Outlook - Mixed

The IGCS gauge implies that about 41% of retail investors are net long AUD/USD. Upside exposure has decreased by 7.01% over a weekly basis while downside bets have fallen by 5.48% over the same period. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a further mixed trading bias.

AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Will Retail Traders Boost Upside Exposure?

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

AUD/USD could fall ahead after prices failed to hold a push above the medium-term 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). As such, the bearish ‘Death Cross’ formation held as prices also turned lower in the falling trend line from late August. Resuming August’s top entails taking out the 0.7015 – 0.7064 inflection zone.

AUD/USD – Daily Chart

AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Will Retail Traders Boost Upside Exposure?

Australian Dollar Chart Created in Trading View

Euro Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that about 43% of retail investors are net long EUR/USD. Upside exposure has increased by 14.19% and 13.40% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain netshort.

AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Will Retail Traders Boost Upside Exposure?

Euro Technical Analysis

EUR/USD also recently failed to hold a push above the 50-day SMA. This has kept the bearish ‘Death Cross’ in play after the short-term 20-day SMA crossed under the former. This has left prices testing the 1.1696 – 1.1736 inflection zone after taking out the rising trend line from late September. A close under the former exposes key support at 1.1612.

EUR/USD – Daily Chart

AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Will Retail Traders Boost Upside Exposure?

Euro Chart Created in Trading View

British Pound Sentiment Outlook - Bearish

The IGCS gauge implies that about 46% of retail traders are net long GBP/USD. Downside exposure has decreased by 12.25% and 0.90% over a daily and weekly basis respectively. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain netshort.

Follow me on Twitter @ddubrovskyFX for updates on price trends and retail positioning!

AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Will Retail Traders Boost Upside Exposure?

British Pound Technical Analysis

GBP/USD has also failed to hold a push above the 50-day SMA, keeping the bearish ‘Death Cross’ in play. Prices are testing near-term rising support from late September after key resistance was established between 1.3007 and 1.3083. Resuming August’s top entails a drop through the 1.2676 – 1.2763 support zone.

GBP/USD – Daily Chart

AUD/USD, EUR/USD, GBP/USD: Will Retail Traders Boost Upside Exposure?

British Pound Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from October 13th Report

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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