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US Dollar May Rise, Eyeing Breakouts in USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

US Dollar May Rise, Eyeing Breakouts in USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

2020-04-16 03:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar could be on the verge of extending gains against ASEAN FX
  • USD/SGD and USD/MYR pushed above key resistance after bouncing
  • USD/PHP broke above Falling Wedge, USD/IDR eyeing key support

Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

The US Dollar may be readying to rise against some of its ASEAN counterparts such as the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso and Indonesian Rupiah. On the 4-hour chart below is my ASEAN-based USD index which averages it against SGD, MYR, PHP and IDR. The Greenback appears to have confirmed an upside breakout through key descending resistance from March – blue line. This has exposed resistance from earlier this month, which could be targeted next. A turn lower places the focus on current April lows.

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ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index – Daily Chart

US Dollar May Rise, Eyeing Breakouts in USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

ASEAN Chart Created in TradingView

Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook

The Singapore Dollar may be at risk to weakness after USD/SGD seemed to push above key falling resistance from last month’s top. This followed the presence of positive RSI divergence which showed fading downside momentum. A climb through 1.4295 exposes 1.4415 as the pair attempts to reverse the near-term downtrend. Otherwise a turn lower places the focus on support back at 1.4117.

Learn more about how the MAS conducts monetary policy and what matters for the Singapore Dollar!

USD/SGD 4-Hour Chart

US Dollar May Rise, Eyeing Breakouts in USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

USD/SGD Chart Created in TradingView

Malaysian Ringgit Technical Outlook

The Malaysian Ringgit may also be at risk to losses ahead. USD/MYR has taken out the falling trend line from last month’s top – blue line on the daily chart below. This also follows a bounce off key support between 4.2985 to 4.3085. Resistance has been exposed at 4.3830 which if taken out, opens the door to revisit 4.4390. Otherwise downtrend resumption could eventually open the door to testing “potential support” from January.

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USD/MYR Daily Chart

US Dollar May Rise, Eyeing Breakouts in USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

USD/MYR Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook

The Philippine Peso appears to have broken through a Falling Wedge which is a bullish pattern. That may open the door for USD/PHP to retest the upper boundary of the persistent consolidative range since November. That is a range between 51.13 to 51.30. Closing above this area exposes 51.70. Otherwise falling through the lower boundary of support - 50.38 - exposes lows from 2018.

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USD/PHP Daily Chart

US Dollar May Rise, Eyeing Breakouts in USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

USD/PHP Chart Created in TradingView

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

The Indonesian Rupiah finds itself challenging support “2” on the daily chart below. This is in the aftermath of this week’s Bank of Indonesia surprise rate hold. USD/IDR is also hovering around peaks from July 1998 at 15750. If the trend line holds, a push higher places the focus on former support which may stand in the way as resistance at 16090. Further declines exposes support “3” on the way to highs from 2018 around 15265.

To stay updated on fundamental developments for ASEAN currencies, follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX

USD/IDR Daily Chart

US Dollar May Rise, Eyeing Breakouts in USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/PHP

USD/IDR Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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