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US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR, USD/IDR

US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR, USD/IDR

2020-04-09 03:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar stumbled against ASEAN FX, directional commitment lacking
  • USD/SGD trades within Ascending Triangle, USD/PHP eyes falling wedge
  • USD/MYR eyes falling resistance, USD/IDR consolidates within 1998 levels

Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

The US Dollar broadly weakened against ASEAN currencies such as the Singapore Dollar, Philippine Peso, Malaysian Ringgit and Indonesian Rupiah over the past 5 trading days. My ASEAN-based USD index – which averages it against SGD, PHP, MYR and IDR – is still showing signs of hesitation to commit to further downside progress.

A Bullish Pennant appears to be forming since the top in March. A close above descending resistance could open the door to resuming the prior uptrend from early last month. In other words, broad appreciation in the US Dollar against ASEAN currencies. Overturning this chart formation would place the focus on lows seen in early April. What is the technical road ahead for USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR and USD/IDR?

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ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index – Daily Chart

US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR, USD/IDR

ASEAN Chart Created in TradingView

Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook

The Singapore Dollar faces a Descending Triangle formation which is a continuation pattern. The direction of the breakout could precede the key USD/SGD trend ahead. A close above falling resistance from the March opens the door to uptrend resumption towards 1.4415. Beyond that price sits the 2016 high at 1.4537. Otherwise a descent through support at 1.4203 exposes the May 2017 high at 1.4129 towards 1.4043.

Learn more about how the MAS conducts monetary policy and what matters for the Singapore Dollar!

USD/SGD 4-Hour Chart

US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR, USD/IDR

USD/SGD Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook

The Philippine Peso appears to be trading within a Falling Wedge which is a bullish chart formation. If USD/PHP pushes above the ceiling of the wedge, that may open the door to revisiting the upper boundary of its persistent consolidative range. That puts resistance at a range between 51.13 to 51.30. A climb through it exposes the March peak. Otherwise, further losses expose the 2018 low at 49.73.

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USD/PHP Daily Chart

US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR, USD/IDR

USD/PHP Chart Created in TradingView

Malaysian Ringgit Technical Outlook

The Malaysian Ringgit appears to be cautiously appreciating against the US Dollar since USD/MYR topped last month around 4.4390. Guiding the pair lower is falling resistance from then – blue line. That could pave the way to retest the June – August 2017 inflection point between 4.2985 to 4.3085. Down the road, a rising support line from January could maintain the dominant upside bias since the turn of 2020.

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USD/MYR Daily Chart

US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR, USD/IDR

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

The Indonesian Rupiah cautiously rose versus the US Dollar recently but remains in consolidation just under the 1998 high at 16850. The floor seems to be at 16090 which could be tested ahead. This is due to USD/IDR falling under support “1” on the daily chart below. Further losses expose the July 1998 high at 15750 and support “2”. Otherwise a push above the 1998 high exposes the 38.2% Fibonacci extension at 17253.

To stay updated on fundamental developments for ASEAN currencies, follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX

USD/IDR Daily Chart

US Dollar Technical Outlook: USD/SGD, USD/PHP, USD/MYR, USD/IDR

USD/IDR Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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