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Natural Gas Price Forecast: Will Bears Give Up Control?

Natural Gas Price Forecast: Will Bears Give Up Control?

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst

Natural Gas Technical Outlook

  • Bears ease up yet, still in charge
  • Signals and levels to monitor.

Natural Gas Price - At its Lowest in Over two Decades

On March 18, natural gas tumbled to $1.583- its lowest level in nearly 25 years. Later on, the market rallied as some bears seemed to cover. Yet, the price closed the weekly candlestick in the red with 14.1% loss.

This week, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 38 to 45 highlighting weaker downtrend momentum.

Nat-Gas DAILY Price CHART (Jan 23, 2019 – Mar 26, 2020) Zoomed Out

Natural gas daily price chart 26-03-20 zoomed out

Natural Gas DAILY Price CHART (Jan 22 – Mar 26, 2020) Zoomed IN

Natural gas daily price chart 26-03-20 zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart, we noticed that on March 17 the market failed to overtake the 50-day average and remained below. Additionally, natural gas slipped to a lower trading zone. This week, the price climbed back to current trading zone $1.566 - $1.760.

Yesterday, the market tested trading above the high end of the zone then reversed its direction indicating that bears may come back. Thus, a close below the low end of the zone could encourage bears to press towards $1.430. Yet, the monthly support area marked on the chart (zoomed in) should be kept in focus.

On the flip-side, any close above the high end of the zone highlights bears hesitation. This may lead some of them to exit the market allowing natural gas to rally towards $1.902. Further close above that level could push the price even higher towards $2.033. In that scenario, the weekly resistance levels and area underscored on the chart should be monitored.

Natural Gas price Four-Hour PRICE CHART (Mar 6 – Mar 26, 2020)

natural gas four hour price chart 26-03-20

From the four- hour chart, we noticed that yesterday the market paused its downtrend move as created a high with a higher high at $1.777 causing a sideways move.

Thus, a break below $1.550 could send natural gas towards $1.430. Although, the psychological level underlined on the chart should be considered. In turn, a break above $1.800 may cause a rally towards $1.900. Nevertheless, the daily resistance level underlined on the chart should be watched closely.

See the chart to find out more about the key technical levels to keep in mind in a further bullish/bearish scenario.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.