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Natural Gas Price Outlook: Signals & Levels to Consider - Nat Gas Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Price Outlook: Signals & Levels to Consider - Nat Gas Technical Analysis

2020-03-19 15:35:00
Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst
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Natural Gas Technical Forecast

  • Natural gas prints its lowest level in over two decades
  • Signals and levels to keep in focus.

Natural Gas Price – Bears Are Back

On March 11, natural gas rallied above $.2.000 threshold then retreated after. Nevertheless, on Friday the price closed the weekly candlestick in the green with 9.2% gain. Yesterday, bears took charge and pressed the market to $1.583 – its lowest level in nearly 25 years.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) crossed below 50 highlighting a possible recovery of stalled downtrend momentum.

Nat-Gas DAILY Price CHART (Jan 23, 2019 – Mar 19, 2020) Zoomed Out

Natural gas daily price chart 19-03-20 zoomed out
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Natural Gas DAILY Price CHART (Jan 22 – Mar 19, 2020) Zoomed IN

Natural gas daily price chart 19-03-20 zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart, we noticed at the start of this week natural gas has declined then closed below the 50-day average then remained below this indicator providing a bearish signal. Later on, the market moved to a lower trading zone $1.760- $1.655.

A close below the low end of the zone may convince bears to press towards $1.430. Further close below that level could send the price even lower towards $1.248. That said, the weekly support area and level marked on the chart should be watched closely.

In turn, a close above the high end of the zone reflects bears reluctance. This might lead some to exit the market causing natural gas to surge towards $1.902. Further close above this level could extend the rally towards $2.033. In that scenario, the daily resistance levels underscored on the chart should be considered.

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Natural Gas price Four-Hour PRICE CHART (Mar 10 – Mar 19, 2020)

natural gas four hour price chart 19-03-20

From the four- hour chart, we noticed that last week natural gas peaked at $2.020 then started a downtrend move creating lower highs with lower lows. Additionally, the price remained trading below the downtrend line originated from the March at $1.969. Thus, any violation to this line would possibly cause a rally towards the $1.900 handle.

Thus, a break above $1.800 could lead natural gas towards $1.900. Although, the daily resistance level underlined on the chart should be monitored. On the flip-side, any break in the other direction, i.e. below $1.550 could press the market towards $1.430. Yet, the psychological level printed on the chart should be kept in focus.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

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