News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/FFMy5O9YoY
  • It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. Understand a pair's spread here: https://t.co/zEEUHZBx7g https://t.co/jZHcyAZ5SU
  • Further your forex knowledge and gain insights from our expert analysts on EUR with our free guide, available today: https://t.co/XtydfV5wS6 https://t.co/Iw9haaHAnn
  • The Federal Reserve System (the Fed) was founded in 1913 by the United States Congress. The Fed’s actions and policies have a major impact on currency value, affecting many trades involving the US Dollar. Learn more about the Fed here: https://t.co/ADSC4sr63f https://t.co/raO3gCGqQ6
  • Key levels in forex tend to draw attention to traders in the market. These are psychological prices which tie into the human psyche and way of thinking. Learn about psychological levels here: https://t.co/8A1QhwMVKo https://t.co/rWVlBs6H3c
  • The update to the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is likely to sway the US Dollar during the Federal Reserve’s blackout period as the central bank braces for a transitory rise in inflation. Get your weekly $USD forecast from @DavidJSong here: https://t.co/JTuP7CLlyi https://t.co/tOvqn3Gdpc
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACQ6Cz https://t.co/s5dn4ZKnku
  • Becoming a forex trader means living and breathing the excitement, risk and reward of trading in the biggest and most liquid market in the world. Do you have what it takes? Read here to discover the qualities and processes it takes to build consistency: https://t.co/EfWEACyvdZ https://t.co/6VjW5FEiQW
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here: https://t.co/wXSWo1JygD https://t.co/vWVaSEQTXT
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here: https://t.co/t9FlspUVZz https://t.co/9kfBu04auM
US Dollar Surges, Now What? EUR/USD, AUD/USD Downtrends Analyzed

US Dollar Surges, Now What? EUR/USD, AUD/USD Downtrends Analyzed

Daniel Dubrovsky, Strategist

US Dollar, EUR/USD, AUD/USD, Trader Positioning - Talking Points

  • US Dollar may rise as global outlook uncertainty boosts haven demand
  • Sentiment hints that the EUR/USD and AUD/USD downtrend may go on
  • Near-term gains may be tamed by outer layers of falling resistance ahead

What Does Trader Positioning Say About the US Dollar Price Trend?

In the recording above, I discussed the outlook for the US Dollar incorporating IG Client Sentiment (IGCS). This is a tool that can offer insight on prevailing market trends based on trader positioning. This is in addition to fundamental and technical analysis. Regarding the former, the Greenback may see gains due to heightened demand for liquidity and preserving capital amid the coronavirus outbreak that is sinking stocks worldwide.

Taking a brief look at my majors-based US Dollar index – which averages USD against EUR, JPY, GBP and AUD – the Greenback remains in an aggressive uptrend. Using the 4-hour chart below, gains are being maintained by “inner” and “outer” support. Taking out the former may not necessarily spell the end of USD’s appreciation. Rather, it could place the focus on the latter which may keep the uptrend intact down the road.

Majors-Based US Dollar Index - 4-Hour Chart

US Dollar Surges, Now What? EUR/USD, AUD/USD Downtrends Analyzed

USD Index Chart Created in Trading View

Euro Sentiment Outlook

According to IG Client Sentiment at the time of writing, about 49.26% of traders are net long EUR/USD. This is up from about a 30% upside bias from earlier this month. Since then, the Euro has dropped over 4.2% against the US Dollar. That likely spoke to a greater share of traders attempting to pick the turning point.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are netshort suggests the pair may rise.Yet traders are less netshort than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain netshort.

US Dollar Surges, Now What? EUR/USD, AUD/USD Downtrends Analyzed

Euro Technical Analysis

EUR/USD remains in a downtrend off peaks from earlier this month. Losses are being maintained by falling resistance – blue line on the chart below. Prices appear to be bouncing off lows from November which makes for a range of support between 1.0981 to 1.1003. That may pave the way for a retest of falling resistance. Down the road, the pair may struggle pushing through former falling resistance from December – red lines. Clearing this point opens the door to revisiting lows from February.

EUR/USD 4-Hour Chart

US Dollar Surges, Now What? EUR/USD, AUD/USD Downtrends Analyzed

EUR/USD Chart Created in Trading View

Australian Dollar Sentiment Outlook

IGCS shows that about 71.93% of traders are net long AUD/USD. Those biased to the upside have climbed 17.86% and 14.99% from yesterday and last week respectively. We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are netlong suggests the Australian Dollar may continue falling. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes offers a stronger bearish contrarian trading outlook.

US Dollar Surges, Now What? EUR/USD, AUD/USD Downtrends Analyzed

Australian Dollar Technical Analysis

Positive RSI divergence is present on the AUD/USD 4-hour chart, hinting that a near-term bounce may be in store as downside momentum fades. If that pushes prices above “inner resistance” on the chart below, it could lead to a test of “outer resistance”. The latter may maintain the dominant downtrend. Otherwise, resuming losses through the 2008 bottom exposes the 123.6% Fibonacci extension at 0.5941.

AUD/USD Daily Chart

US Dollar Surges, Now What? EUR/USD, AUD/USD Downtrends Analyzed

AUD/USD Chart Created in Trading View

*IG Client Sentiment Charts and Positioning Data Used from March 17 Report

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES