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EUR/CHF May Fall as DAX Plunges Amid Stock Market Crash

EUR/CHF May Fall as DAX Plunges Amid Stock Market Crash

2020-03-13 03:30:00
Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst


  • Euro outlook bearish vs Swiss Franc as EUR/CHF retreats from resistance, resumes downtrend
  • DAX erased four years’ worth of gains in less than three weeks as the index traded at 4-year low
  • ECB’s Lagarde warned of 2008-style crisis as region faces unprecedented threat of coronavirus


After briefly peaking its head above the descending resistance channel, EUR/CHF quickly resumed its prior downtrend after the pair failed to clear what is technically-significant resistance at 1.0679. For three consecutive days, the pair traded on the cusp of this ceiling, but ultimately capitulated from a lack of confidence in upside potential. The upward-extending wicks indicated a longing to climb higher.

EUR/CHF – Daily Chart

Chart showing EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF chart created using TradingView

Looking at a monthly chart shows another alarming trend for EUR/CHF bulls: the pair is less than four percent away from trading at its lowest point since the Swiss National Bank lifted the exchange rate floor in 2015. Traders will be closely eyeing what could be potential support between 1.0235 and 1.0334 where selling pressure may begin to abate. However, the fundamental circumstances support a bearish bias.

EUR/CHF – Monthly Chart

Chart showing EUR/CHF

EUR/CHF chart created using TradingView


Following the peak in late February, the benchmark German DAX index plunged over 30 percent after briefly stalling around the 2018-low at 10381.510. It subsequently gapped below it and a 2016-floor at 10085.480 and may aim to challenge support at 8703.850, a level not reached since 2014. Given the DAX’s significant caps in an environment of low liquidity, further drops of this magnitude should not be casually brushed aside.

DAX Index – Daily Chart

Chart showing DAX Index

DAX chart created using TradingView

This is supported by the monthly chart perspective that shows the index has broken below a nine-year uptrend, consequently dealing a decisive blow to the DAX’s outlook – at least in the short term. Recovery from here will be particularly difficult given the region’s deteriorating growth prospects from COVID-19 and the upcoming US Presidential election which may precede a revived EU-US trade war.

DAX Index – Monthly Chart

Chart showing DAX Index

DAX chart created using TradingView


--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.