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US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD Trend Pointing Lower, USD/IDR May Rise

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD Trend Pointing Lower, USD/IDR May Rise

2020-03-05 04:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, USD/SGD, Indonesian Rupiah, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar fell against the Singapore Dollar but rose vs Indonesian Rupiah
  • USD/SGD technical bias favors downside as pair seeks further confirmation
  • USD/IDR soared through key resistance, shifting focus to the upside next

Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook

The US Dollar has been losing ground to the Singapore Dollar after USD/SGD broke under a key rising trend line from January last week – as expected. Now, the currency pair may be readying to extend the near-term downtrend from highs last month. Prices closed under the February 12 low at 1.3850. With downside confirmation, this could resume a reversal of the uptrend from January.

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USD/SGD Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD Trend Pointing Lower, USD/IDR May Rise

USD/SGD Chart Created in TradingView

Zooming in on the 4-hour chart, USD/SGD has yet to confirm the push under mid-February lows. A bounce can result in a rise towards key falling resistance from the February peak – blue lines on the chart below. That places the focus on the psychological barrier between 1.3906 to 1.3942. A close above the latter exposes 1.3991. Otherwise, downtrend resumption paves the way to test the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 1.3765. Taking out the latter would then expose the next barrier between 1.3669 to 1.3692.

Learn more about how the MAS conducts monetary policy and what matters for the Singapore Dollar!

USD/SGD 4-Hour

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD Trend Pointing Lower, USD/IDR May Rise

USD/SGD Chart Created in TradingView

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

The US Dollar climbed aggressively versus the Indonesian Rupiah with USD/IDR taking out key falling resistance from May on the weekly chart. The 3.31% rise was the most-aggressive climb over the course of 5 trading days since August 2015 and followed aggressive capital outflows from Indonesia amid the global coronavirus outbreak. USD/IDR may attempt upside confirmation which could pave its trajectory ahead.

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USD/IDR Weekly Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD Trend Pointing Lower, USD/IDR May Rise

USD/IDR Chart Created in TradingView

Taking a look at the USD/IDR daily chart, the US Dollar has confirmed the upside push through falling resistance. Prices then took out 14130 and 14215 before struggling at 14350. That has left the Rupiah facing a potential near-term rising support line from early February. A daily close under may shift the immediate technical bias downward. That would place the focus in key support which is a range between 13848 to 13895. Down the road, upside resumption entails closing above peaks from May (14484 to 14525).

USD/IDR Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD Trend Pointing Lower, USD/IDR May Rise

USD/IDR Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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