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Dollar Technical Forecast Favors USD/MYR and USD/PHP Upside

Dollar Technical Forecast Favors USD/MYR and USD/PHP Upside

2020-02-28 05:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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US Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Philippine Peso, USD/MYR, USD/PHP – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar stumbles against the Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso
  • USD/MYR and USD/PHP near-term technical bias still pointing higher
  • Technical confirmation is key with fundamental risk of the coronavirus

Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso Technical Outlook

The US Dollar aimed cautiously lower against ASEAN currencies such as the Malaysian Ringgit and Philippine Peso – as expected. My ASEAN-based US Dollar index has closed under a rising trend line from January. Taking out the key psychological barrier between 4.1048 to 4.116 next may open the door to testing the former high from September. As always, confirmation is key with technical analysis, particularly when fundamental themes such as the coronavirus epidemic play such a key role for FX such as MYR and PHP.

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ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index – Daily Chart

Dollar Technical Forecast Favors USD/MYR and USD/PHP Upside

ASEAN Chart Created in TradingView

Malaysian Ringgit Technical Outlook

The US Dollar appears to have experienced a false upside breakout against the Malaysian Ringgit after USD/MYR breached the August high. This followed a test of the October 2017 peak at 4.2425 which held. Yet, the near-term technical bias still favors the upside via rising support from January. That may guide the pair higher for another check at 4.2425 which if taken out, exposes resistance between 4.2985 to 4.3085.

USD/MYR Daily Chart

Dollar Technical Forecast Favors USD/MYR and USD/PHP Upside

USD/MYR Chart Created in TradingView

Philippine Peso Technical Outlook

The near-term USD/PHP technical bias may also favor the upside after the currency pair cleared falling resistance from August – red lines on the chart below. Yet, the Philippine Peso arguably remains in its persistent consolidation mode since November after a test of the upper boundary around 51.13. A bounce on the descending trendline may send USD/PHP higher for another attempt to breach upper resistance. Otherwise a turn lower places the focus on key support at 50.40 to 50.52.

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USD/PHP Daily Chart

Dollar Technical Forecast Favors USD/MYR and USD/PHP Upside

USD/PHP Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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