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Natural Gas Eyes Pushing Higher as Support Holds - Nat Gas Technical Analysis

Natural Gas Eyes Pushing Higher as Support Holds - Nat Gas Technical Analysis

2020-02-20 15:00:00
Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst

Natural Gas Technical Outlook

  • End of Bearish momentum
  • Signals and thresholds to monitor

Natural Gas – Bears Pull Back

Last week, natural gas declined to $1.770 – its lowest level in nearly four years. However, the market rallied after, as some bears seemed to cover. This week, the price printed its highest level in over four weeks at $1.977.

Alongside that, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) rose from 31 to 54 highlighting the end of downside move.

Nat-Gas DAILY Price CHART (JUL 23, 2018 – FEB 20, 2020) Zoomed Out

Natural gas daily price chart 20-02-20 zoomed out
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Nat-Gas DAILY Price CHART (DEc 5 – FEB 20, 2020) Zoomed IN

Natural gas daily price chart 20-02-20 zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart, we notice on Feb 16, natural gas opened with a gap to the upside then closed above the 50-day average providing two bullish signals. Additionally, the market broke above the downtrend line originated form the Nov 24 high at $2.739 eyeing a test of $2.050, see the chart (zoomed out).

This week, some bears showed more hesitation and allowed the price to move to a higher trading zone $1.915 - $2.050. Thus, a close above the high end of the zone could lead more bears to exit the market and cause a rally towards $2.140. Further close above this level, opens the door for bulls to take charge and rally natural gas towards $2.209. That said, the weekly resistance levels underscored on the chart (zoomed in) should be considered.

In turn, any close below the low end of the zone may encourage bear to press towards $1.819. Further close below this level could mean more bearishness towards $1.745. In that scenario, the daily and weekly support levels printed on the chart would be worth monitoring .

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Natural Gas price Four-Hour PRICE CHART (DEC 29 – FEB 20, 2020)

natural gas four hour price chart 20-02-20

From the four- hour chart, we noticed that on Jan 19 natural gas rebounded $1.815 then consolidated after, creating lower highs with higher lows. Last week, the price rallied above $1.900 handle. This week, the market failed twice at overtaking $1.977, signaling a possible return to the sideways move.

Thus, a break below $1.890 could send natural gas to $1.819. Although, the daily support level underlined on the chart should be kept in focus. On the flip side, any break above $2.093 may push the price towards $2.141. Yet, the weekly resistance level marked on the chart should be watched closely.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

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