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Euro Weakness Risks Accelerating: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Euro Weakness Risks Accelerating: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

2020-02-18 04:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst

Euro, EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP, Technical Analysis – Talking Points

  • The downtrend in my majors-based Euro index may pick up pace
  • EUR/USD may take out key support which would expose 1.0706
  • EUR/JPY top is accelerating as EUR/GBP faces December lows

Euro Technical Analysis

The Euro may have more room to depreciate against its major counterparts such as the US Dollar, Japanese Yen and British Pound. Taking a look at my majors-based Euro index - which averages EUR versus USD, JPY, GBP and AUD – the currency has taken out descending support from 2018 using the weekly chart. This is also in the aftermath of falling under the trend line from late 2015 in October 2019.

That has exposed the psychological barrier between 1.4322 to 1.4366 which was the upper boundary of consolidation that the index experienced in late 2016 and early 2017. The lower boundary resided between 1.3952 to 1.3867. While the medium-term Euro technical outlook appears bearish, a potential rising support channel from 2015 may keep the long-term bias pointing upwards – blue area below.

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Majors-Based Euro Index

Euro Weakness Risks Accelerating: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Chart Created Using TradingView

EUR/USD Technical Analysis

On the daily chart, EUR/USD sits within the psychological barrier between 1.0821 to 1.0852. This area consists of lows from May 2017 and prices reached this barrier after taking out rising support from October. A close to the downside with confirmation exposes the 100% point of the Fibonacci extension at 1.0706. Guiding EUR/USD lower in the medium-term may be a potential falling trend line from late December.

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EUR/USD Daily Chart

Euro Weakness Risks Accelerating: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Chart Created Using TradingView

EUR/JPY Technical Analysis

EUR/JPY continues falling after closing under rising support from September. Guiding the pair to the downside appears to be a potential falling trend line from January. EUR/JPY also fell under the November low at 119.25, exposing the former descending channel from September 2018. The pair may see consolidation between the latter and former in its downward trajectory. It is pointing towards the October low at 117.07.

EUR/JPY BULLISH
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of clients are net long. of clients are net short.
Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -20% 3% -7%
Weekly -23% -16% -19%
What does it mean for price action?
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EUR/JPY Daily Chart

Euro Weakness Risks Accelerating: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Chart Created Using TradingView

EUR/GBP Technical Analysis

EUR/GBP finds itself retesting lows from December after prices slowed the descent from August highs. The former is a range between 0.8300 to 0.8338 which if taken out, exposes the midpoint of the Fibonacci extension at 0.8168. Guiding EUR/GBP lower may be a potential falling trend line from the December high. A close above the latter may lead towards a push to key resistance at 0.8592.

EUR/GBP Daily Chart

Euro Weakness Risks Accelerating: EUR/USD, EUR/JPY, EUR/GBP

Chart Created Using TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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