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US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR – ASEAN

US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR – ASEAN

2020-02-06 03:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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US Dollar, USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR – ASEAN Technical Analysis

  • US Dollar sees aggressive gains against ASEAN FX on coronavirus fears
  • Singapore Dollar witnesses most volatility as USD/SGD ascends on MAS
  • USD/MYR and USD/IDR bottomed following fading downside momentum

US Dollar, Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit, Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

The US Dollar has extended its advance against its ASEAN counterparts, with pairs such as USD/SGD, USD/MYR and USD/IDR on the rise. Declines in the Singapore Dollar, Malaysian Ringgit and Indonesian Rupiah have occurred on coronavirus fears which dampened sentiment. This has pushed my ASEAN-based US Dollar index to its highest since October after breaking above key falling resistance – as expected. As fears on the Wuhan virus seem to be subsiding, what is the technical outlook from here?

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ASEAN-Based US Dollar Index

US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR – ASEAN

ASEAN-Based USD Index Created in TradingView

Singapore Dollar Technical Outlook

The Singapore Dollar has been particularly battered after the MAS hinted a more-dovish tilt. This sent USD/SGD skyrocketing in its most-aggressive single-day climb since February 2018 as prices closed at their highest since October. The currency pair is now sitting on the lower boundary of key resistance which is a range between 1.3849 to 1.3879. A push above this area exposes peaks from August. A turn lower places the focus in immediate support at 1.3692.

Learn more about how the MAS conducts monetary policy and what matters for the Singapore Dollar!

USD/SGD Daily Chart

US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR – ASEAN

USD/SGD Chart Created in TradingView

Malaysian Ringgit Technical Outlook

The US Dollar has also extended its rise against the Malaysian Ringgit after USD/MYR took out falling resistance from December. This also followed the presence of positive RSI divergence which was hinting that momentum to the downside was fading. The latter can at times precede a turn higher. Immediate resistance sits at 4.1225 which if taken out, exposes 4.1630 on the way towards highs from November. A turn lower places the focus on support at 4.1070 followed by 4.0850 before eyeing January lows.

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USD/MYR Daily Chart

US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR – ASEAN

USD/MYR Chart Created in TradingView

Indonesian Rupiah Technical Outlook

After hitting its strongest level against the US Dollar since early 2018, the Indonesian Rupiah appears to have found a bottom. USD/IDR turned higher after the presence of positive RSI divergence as well, taking out the March 2018 low at 13705 on its way to the upside. From here, key resistance sits above at 13785 followed by the psychological barrier between 13848 to 13923. The medium-term downtrend is being maintained by falling resistance from May – red lines on the chart below. A turn lower places the focus on 13540.

To stay updated on fundamental developments for ASEAN currencies, follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX

USD/IDR Daily Chart

US Dollar Technical Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/MYR, USD/IDR – ASEAN

USD/IDR Chart Created in TradingView

--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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