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Euro Rate Technical Forecast: Q1 2020

Euro Rate Technical Forecast: Q1 2020

2019-12-21 04:00:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Sr. Currency Strategist
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After a decidedly mixed 2019, the Euro is starting 2020 on the same anodyne footing with which it closed out the previous year. The European Central Bank’s holding period has helped afford the Euro some time in which it has been able to steer clear of major negative influences, as the market’s collective attention has been on the US-China trade war and Brexit/the UK general election.

As these fundamental themes have evolved, so too has the Euro’s interaction with the various associated G10 currencies. For some EUR-crosses, the technical outlook has changed materially heading into Q1’20.

EUR/USD Rate Technical Analysis: Daily Chart (Chart 1)

EURUSD Chart

EUR/USD Q1’20 Forecast

EUR/USD rates enter Q1’20 with a bullish bias. The symmetrical triangle that formed in the second half of 2019 yielded a topside breakout, as prices move towards the end of December 2019, EUR/USD rates are looking to validate the bullish breakout move. By clearing the October and November 2019 highs near 1.1180, price action would be offering a meaningful signal that EUR/USD rates validated their bullish bias.

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