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New Zealand Dollar Technical Analysis: AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY

New Zealand Dollar Technical Analysis: AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY

Dimitri Zabelin, Analyst

New Zealand Dollar, Australian Dollar, Japanese Yen, AUD/NZD, NZD/JPY – TALKING POINTS

  • NZD/JPY rebounding from support, is aiming at July highs
  • AUD/NZD decline continues with eye on August swing-low
  • Pair's ascent may be amplified by recent jobs data release

NZD/JPY Price Forecast

NZD/JPY continues to show upside resilience as it climbs well above the October uptrend after recently breaking into the lower layer of the 71.822-73.245 resistance range. Upside momentum continues to be strong especially after New Zealand GDP data was published and showed growth in Q3 had exceeded economists’ forecasts.

NZD/JPY – Daily Chart

Chart showing NZD/AUD

NZD/JPY chart created using TradingView

Looking ahead, traders may wait for NZD/JPY to re-test support with confirmation before establishing a long position. This leaves a little under two percent until the pair hits resistance at 73.245. However, if NZD/JPY fails to continue higher, the pair may retreat to the uptrend which is a little less than a one percent price drop, making for a favorable risk-reward set up.

AUD/NZD Outlook

AUD/NZD has fallen a little over 4.2 percent after re-testing the August 2015 descending resistance channel but is encountering some friction at the 1.0403. Positive RSI divergence is showing that downside momentum is fading as selling pressure softens and buyers start swooping in. Looking ahead, a short-term recovery may be attempted with an eye at 1.0484.

AUD/NZD – Daily Chart

Chart showing AUD/NZD

AUD/NZD chart created using TradingView

Conversely a break below 1.0403 with follow-through could open the door to testing support at 1.0265, a level not reached since the flash crash on January 3. A turn lower may reinforce the pair’s bearish bias and catalyze an aggressive selloff if it discourages AUD/NZD bulls. A weekly chart of the pair’s trajectory shows what a formidable road lies ahead for the pair considering how much upside movement may be required before it marked a tectonic shift in the pair’s trajectory.

AUD/NZD – Weekly Chart

Chart showing AUD/NZD

AUD/NZD chart created using TradingView


--- Written by Dimitri Zabelin, Jr Currency Analyst for

To contact Dimitri, use the comments section below or @ZabelinDimitrion Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.