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Euro Area Stocks Flirt with Breaking 4-Month Uptrend

Euro Area Stocks Flirt with Breaking 4-Month Uptrend

What's on this page


  • Euro area stocks trending higher on US-China trade deal, orderly Brexit hopes
  • Bearish technical cues made good with swift decline but uptrend intact for now
  • Pivotal support looks to be 3549. Breaking 3734 might neutralize bearish bias

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Eurozone stocks have tracked higher alongside a move away from dovish extremes on priced-in 2020 Fed policy bets since September. That move – witnessed in one form or another across most benchmark financial assets – appears to have rising hopes for a “phase one” US-China trade deal. Ebbing concerns about a no-deal Brexit probably helped as well.

Chart of the Euro Stoxx 50 equities index vs 2020 Fed policy expectations

Euro Stoxx 50 chart created with TradingView

That trend may be on the cusp of reversal. The benchmark Euro Stoxx 50 index validated preliminary bearish cues in technical positioning identified two weeks ago with a sharp push downward, suffering the largest one-day drop in two months. That has brought on a test of trend support guiding the rise from the mid-August bottom, putting prices within a hair of signaling bearish trend reversal.

Chart of the Euro Stoxx 50 equities index

Euro Stoxx 50 chart created with TradingView

Critical support is in the 3549.30-73.60 zone, a former resistance area positioned just beyond the uptrend’s lower bound. A daily close below that would make a compelling case for downside follow-through, exposing a minor inflection barrier at 3476.30 on route to challenge October’s swing low at 3398.60. The double bottom in the 3239.20-48.50 area beckons thereafter.

Neutralizing immediate selling pressure probably requires a daily close above the 3708.80-33.50 region, marked by the trend-capping top from October 2017 and last month’s spike high. Were that to be convincingly broken, the next substantive upside hurdle would be seen at 3836.30. That is the April 2015 top marking the stock index’s peak in the years since the 2008 global financial crisis.


--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for

To contact Ilya, use the comments section below or @IlyaSpivak on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.