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US Dollar Forecast: USD/PHP, USD/MYR Breakout Lower to Accelerate?

US Dollar Forecast: USD/PHP, USD/MYR Breakout Lower to Accelerate?

2019-11-07 04:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst

Philippine Peso, USD/PHP, Malaysian Ringgit, USD/MYR - Talking Points

  • US Dollar extended losses against the Philippine Peso and Malaysian Ringgit
  • USD/PHP could be attempting a reversal of the dominant uptrend from 2013
  • USD/MYR slipping under rising support from 2014, more losses may be ahead

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Philippine Peso Technical Outlook

As anticipated, the Philippine Peso continued its advance against the US Dollar since the middle of last week. This further pushed USD/PHP under the long-term rising trend line from 2013 – pictured on the weekly chart below. The fundamental backdrop behind this move has been rising hopes of a US-China trade deal, which have fueled capital flows into Emerging Market and ASEAN nations.

Such a catalyst could be key to sustaining what could be a reversal of the dominant uptrend that has prevailed for over six years. Yet, there is still potential for an upside reversal. USD/PHP has been slowly descending within a falling channel – blue area below. A test of the floor could spark a rise to the ceiling and the rising trend line. Otherwise, resuming declines opens the door to testing lows from the previous 2 years.

For more ASEAN content, check out my Singapore Dollar and Indonesian Rupiah technical outlook!

USD/PHP Weekly Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/PHP, USD/MYR Breakout Lower to Accelerate?

Zooming in on the USD/PHP daily chart, prices have formed a potential bottom at 50.40 which sits just under the 78.6 percent Fibonacci extension. A daily closer lower exposes 49.98. For a near-term reversal, keep an eye on the falling trend line from late September – pink line below. A daily close above it could open the door to testing highs from October 25 (51.29 – 51.34).

USD/PHP Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/PHP, USD/MYR Breakout Lower to Accelerate?

USD/PHP Charts Created in TradingView

Malaysian Ringgit Technical Outlook

Like the Philippine Peso, the Malaysian Ringgit is also focusing on a key trendline break versus the US Dollar. Looking at the USD/MYR weekly chart, the currency pair is on the verge of taking out a rising support channel from 2014. Further downside closes could signify a reversal to come of the dominant uptrend that has prevailed for over 5 years.

USD/MYR Weekly Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/PHP, USD/MYR Breakout Lower to Accelerate?

Looking at the USD/MYR daily chart, the Malaysian Ringgit closed under a near-term rising support line from March. This followed persistent consolidation for the past roughly two months. Prices have also found a bottom at 4.1290 with near-term resistance at 4.1448. A daily close under the former could open the door for revisiting July lows where support could stand at 4.1070.

In the medium-term, a descending channel could keep the downtrend from late August intact. I have marked this psychological barrier as the pink parallel falling trend lines on the chart below. Closing above this channel could pave the way for a retest of the key range between 4.1950 – 4.2000.

USD/MYR Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/PHP, USD/MYR Breakout Lower to Accelerate?

USD/MYR Charts Created in TradingView

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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