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US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR Nearing Trend-Defining Support

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR Nearing Trend-Defining Support

2019-10-24 02:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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USD/SGD, USD/IDR, Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah - Talking Points

  • US Dollar losing ground to Singapore Dollar, Indonesian Rupiah
  • USD/SGD eyes rising support form 2018, will dominant trend hold?
  • USD/IDR has more progress to go in order to end consolidation

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USD/SGD Technical Outlook

Despite softer Singapore CPI data on Wednesday, the SGD held its recent gains against the US Dollar. In fact, USD/SGD has just about reached the rising channel of support from January 2018. This area is the target after the pair broke under a Symmetrical Triangle pattern on the chart below. Prices have paused the descent at the key psychological barrier between 1.3609 to 1.3674.

A daily closer under would open the door to testing the rising channel of support which if taken out, paves the way for reversing the dominant downtrend. That would then place the focus on the next support level at 1.3516. This price is a combination of the April and June lows from earlier this year. Otherwise, a turn higher opens the door to testing 1.3658.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR Nearing Trend-Defining Support

Zooming in on the Singapore Dollar 4-hour chart, I have highlighted a descending trend line from earlier this month – blue line below. In the event of a turn higher, keep an eye on this resistance. A confirmatory close higher could precede a near-term climb. That would eventually leave prices testing former support which may act as resistance as a range between 1.3707 to 1.3725.

USD/SGD 4-Hour Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR Nearing Trend-Defining Support

USD/SGD Charts Created in TradingView

USD/IDR Technical Outlook

Ahead of the Bank of Indonesia rate decision, where markets are anticipating a cut, the Rupiah has also enjoyed strength against USD. In fact, USD/IDR has been aiming lower ever since failing to push above the falling trend line from May – red line on the chart below. Prices took out a couple of areas of support on the way down. Still, the Indonesian Rupiah has more progress to make to signal a reversal of trend.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR Nearing Trend-Defining Support

USD/IDR Technical Outlook

Zooming out to the weekly chart, USD/IDR’s main obstacle to extend its downtrend is the critical psychological barrier between 13848 – 13923. This is an area that has its beginnings from June 2018. A daily close that both sets new lows within this channel and manages to break below it would open the door to resuming the top in USD/IDR since September 2018. This would also be a breakthrough for volatility given the pair’s persistent consolidation since the beginning of this year.

USD/IDR Weekly Chart

US Dollar Forecast: USD/SGD, USD/IDR Nearing Trend-Defining Support

USD/IDR Charts Created in TradingView

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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