News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Mixed
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Bearish
Gold
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Mixed
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
USD/JPY
Mixed
More View more
Real Time News
  • Have you been catching on your @DailyFX podcast "Global Markets Decoded"? Catch up on them now, before new episodes release! https://t.co/Twr44cZ1GB https://t.co/FuLPdCLpKs
  • Elections anticipation may sabotage trend development next week, but that won't curb volatility between stimulus talks, Covid cases, FAANG earnings and 3Q GDP updates. Top of my watch list this week will be $EURUSD. My video on it all: https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/video/daily_news_report/2020/10/24/EURUSD-a-Top-Volatility-Risk-This-Week-but-Election-Anxiety-May-Keep-Markets-From-Trends.html?ref-author=Kicklighter&QPID=917719&CHID=9 https://t.co/t14eT2SMa7
  • An economic calendar is a resource that allows traders to learn about important economic information scheduled to be released. Stay up to date on the most important global economic data here: https://t.co/JdvW6HNuqV https://t.co/RfUWJdNjzk
  • Brush up your knowledge on trade-wars with this tool from DailyFX research briefly outlining trade-war history dating back to the early 1900s here: https://t.co/ZWaL6laTU5 https://t.co/EzdjTZEbx2
  • The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and AUD/USD could be at risk of extending losses as retail investors increase upside exposure. What are key technical levels to watch for? Find out from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/ivQmFUTGdU https://t.co/KuIoM7g9E3
  • GDP (Gross Domestic Product) economic data is deemed highly significant in the forex market. GDP figures are used as an indicator by fundamentalists to gauge the overall health and potential growth of a country. Learn use GDP data to your advantage here: https://t.co/38gTDn8ejP https://t.co/FBT1eSZdjF
  • There’s a strong correlation between interest rates and forex trading. Forex is ruled by many variables, but the interest rate of the currency is the fundamental factor that prevails above them all. Learn how interest rates impact currency markets here: https://t.co/ERyiY47G5H https://t.co/LRL1iD3JDt
  • Even though the Australian Dollar lost some ground this week, support levels held. Bearish developments are brewing in $AUDUSD and $AUDJPY but remain unconfirmed. What else does #AUD face ahead technically? - https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/article/fx_technical_weekly/2020/10/24/Australian-Dollar-Technical-Forecast-AUDUSD-AUDJPY-EURAUD-GBPAUD.html?CHID=9&QPID=917702&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Dubrovsky&utm_campaign=twr https://t.co/0gHyXW1vHh
  • Forex sentiment analysis can be a useful tool to help traders understand and act on price behavior. Learn how to get the most out of understanding trader sentiment here: https://t.co/LjEjTexrCg https://t.co/9qcanKW0uT
  • Third wave? We haven’t beaten the first wave. Until the virus is under control, the US economy won’t be able to properly heal, plain & simple. The lack of a competent response saps courage. Defeat the virus, then get people back to work. In that order. https://t.co/8R8IyTZejM
GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

2019-10-24 03:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Share:

Brexit Latest News:

  • While UK PM Johnson is surely disappointed that he will not be able to execute his Brexit deal immediately, there is still scope for it to pass in due time.
  • Yet by the UK parliament shooting down the legislation to expedite the Brexit timeline, UK PM Johnson’s vision of getting his Brexit deal implemented has been dented.
  • Retail trader positioning suggests that the British Pound may still rally yet.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the British Pound? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

While UK PM Johnson is surely disappointed that he will not be able to execute his Brexit deal immediately, there is still scope for it to pass in due time. Given that the Letwin amendment passed on Saturday, it appears that there is still an appetite to get Brexit done – just on the right terms by the UK parliament. And with UK PM Johnson’s deal passed in principle, there is more evidence that Brexit may be a matter of the details.

Yet by the UK parliament shooting down the legislation to expedite the Brexit timeline, UK PM Johnson’s vision of getting his Brexit deal implemented has been dented. Let’s not forget that in a sign of begrudging compliance, UK PM Johnson refused to sign the letter requesting the extension past October 31.

EU officials are hesitant on granting another extension carte blanche, however; there are indications that leaders in Germany and France would want to see “actionable cause” for an extension, such as a second referendum or a general election. Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron has previously said that another extension is “in no one’s interest.Accordingly, volatility in the GBP-crosses is up and sentiment/positioning has evolved meaningfully in recent days.

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBP/USD Rate Forecast (October 23, 2019) (Chart 1)

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

GBP/USD: Retail trader data shows 48.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.04 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.5% lower than yesterday and 4.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.6% lower than yesterday and 15.8% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBP/JPY Rate Forecast (October 23, 2019) (Chart 2)

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

GBP/JPY: Retail trader data shows 46.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.13 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.3% higher than yesterday and 4.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.8% higher than yesterday and 39.9% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/JPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EUR/GBP Rate Forecast (October 23, 2019) (Chart 3)

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

EUR/GBP: Retail trader data shows 63.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.7 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 14 when EUR/GBP traded near 0.86401; price has moved 0.3% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.3% higher than yesterday and 21.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.0% higher than yesterday and 3.7% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/GBP prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/GBP trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES