News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bearish
Oil - US Crude
Bullish
Wall Street
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Gold
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bearish
USD/JPY
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • Indices Update: As of 13:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Germany 30: -0.01% France 40: -0.13% Wall Street: -0.29% US 500: -0.29% FTSE 100: -0.31% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/e0gUTLKXn0
  • The Pound saw a modest bout of buying as GBP had been underpinned by reduced political tail risks after the SNP failed to gain a majority at the Scottish Election. Get your $GBP market update from @JMcQueenFX here:https://t.co/bbxv0Aq2LJ https://t.co/LhP15IXDPp
  • it's a big week for $TSLA stock last week it gave up the trendline that's been in-play since last August This week, opening at the 38.2% retracement of the 2020/21 rally https://t.co/cUThTeLFN8
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Silver are long at 90.11%, while traders in Germany 30 are at opposite extremes with 74.44%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/lyppug4pkN
  • LIVE NOW: Join Technical Strategist @MBForex for his Weekly Strategy Webinar to review the setups we're tracking into the weekly open! https://t.co/chKtG7ezG9
  • What are some trading takeaways from 2020, as we jump into 2021? Find out with your free guide here: https://t.co/e7udCTJlmf #DailyfxGuides https://t.co/aRwDcR3vTc
  • Weekly Strategy Webinar starting in 15mins on DailyFX! https://t.co/lxd5fZnn4H
  • Forex Update: As of 12:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇯🇵JPY: 0.14% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.02% 🇨🇭CHF: -0.05% 🇨🇦CAD: -0.17% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.52% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.78% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/PBWIlTgB2d
  • $Gold another fresh 3 month high getting closer and closer to the big test. Bull flag resistance confluent with fibo zone, just ahead https://t.co/N1tUmUKBIa
  • Please join @MBForex at 8:30 EST/12:30 GMT for your weekly scalping webinar. Register here: https://t.co/fnmiAygMWK https://t.co/HNKulK5xoL
GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist

Brexit Latest News:

  • While UK PM Johnson is surely disappointed that he will not be able to execute his Brexit deal immediately, there is still scope for it to pass in due time.
  • Yet by the UK parliament shooting down the legislation to expedite the Brexit timeline, UK PM Johnson’s vision of getting his Brexit deal implemented has been dented.
  • Retail trader positioning suggests that the British Pound may still rally yet.

Looking for longer-term forecasts on the British Pound? Check out the DailyFX Trading Guides.

While UK PM Johnson is surely disappointed that he will not be able to execute his Brexit deal immediately, there is still scope for it to pass in due time. Given that the Letwin amendment passed on Saturday, it appears that there is still an appetite to get Brexit done – just on the right terms by the UK parliament. And with UK PM Johnson’s deal passed in principle, there is more evidence that Brexit may be a matter of the details.

Yet by the UK parliament shooting down the legislation to expedite the Brexit timeline, UK PM Johnson’s vision of getting his Brexit deal implemented has been dented. Let’s not forget that in a sign of begrudging compliance, UK PM Johnson refused to sign the letter requesting the extension past October 31.

EU officials are hesitant on granting another extension carte blanche, however; there are indications that leaders in Germany and France would want to see “actionable cause” for an extension, such as a second referendum or a general election. Indeed, French President Emmanuel Macron has previously said that another extension is “in no one’s interest.Accordingly, volatility in the GBP-crosses is up and sentiment/positioning has evolved meaningfully in recent days.

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBP/USD Rate Forecast (October 23, 2019) (Chart 1)

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

GBP/USD: Retail trader data shows 48.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.04 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 2.5% lower than yesterday and 4.3% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 0.6% lower than yesterday and 15.8% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/USD prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/USD-bullish contrarian trading bias.

IG Client Sentiment Index: GBP/JPY Rate Forecast (October 23, 2019) (Chart 2)

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

GBP/JPY: Retail trader data shows 46.9% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.13 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.3% higher than yesterday and 4.4% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 7.8% higher than yesterday and 39.9% higher from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests GBP/JPY prices may continue to rise. Traders are further net-short than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger GBP/JPY-bullish contrarian trading bias.

IG Client Sentiment Index: EUR/GBP Rate Forecast (October 23, 2019) (Chart 3)

GBP/JPY, GBP/USD Rallies May Not be Finished - Positioning Shifts Around Latest Brexit Deal Progress

EUR/GBP: Retail trader data shows 63.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.7 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since Oct 14 when EUR/GBP traded near 0.86401; price has moved 0.3% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 1.3% higher than yesterday and 21.5% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 4.0% higher than yesterday and 3.7% lower from last week.

We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests EUR/GBP prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed EUR/GBP trading bias.

FX TRADING RESOURCES

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, DailyFX has multiple resources available to help you: an indicator for monitoring trader sentiment; quarterly trading forecasts; analytical and educational webinars held daily; trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and even one for those who are new to FX trading.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Currency Strategist

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail at cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

View our long-term forecasts with the DailyFX Trading Guides

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES