US Dollar Vulnerable to INR, IDR and MYR on Bearish Reversal Hints
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USD/INR, USD/IDR, USD/MYR, USD/SGD - Talking Points
- US Dollar may be vulnerable against the Indian Rupee down the road
- USD/IDR at threshold of critical resistance in its downtrend from May
- USD/SGD may rise, USD/MYR still eyeing a bearish reversal pattern
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USD/INR Technical Outlook
The US Dollar may be vulnerable against the Indian Rupee down the road given the formation of a Descending Triangle in USD/INR. The bearish pattern has its floor established at 70.41, with the ceiling defined by potential descending resistance from September – blue lines on the chart below. After support held in late September, the next test for USD/INR could be the ceiling of the pattern.
The fundamental outlook is clouded by the upcoming Reserve Bank of India monetary policy announcement, due on Friday. As such, the Rupee may experience consolidation within the pattern until then. In the event of a breakout above resistance, keep an eye on key psychological levels at 71.52 and then 71.82. Otherwise, a downside breakout may reverse the pair’s upside progress from July to August.
Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn more about the Indian Central Bank rate decision
USD/INR Daily Chart
USD/IDR Technical Outlook
Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s upside progress against the Indonesian Rupiah is facing its next critical test. USD/IDR has climbed to the threshold of the falling trend line from May, with resistance above at 14215. A close higher would open the door to reversing the dominant downtrend. On the other hand, clearing near-term rising support from September may lead to a test of 14089 and then 1400.
USD/IDR Daily Chart
USD/MYR Technical Outlook
The Head and Shoulders bearish reversal formation in USD/MYR – pointed out last week – is still a technical risk for the US Dollar against the Malaysian Ringgit. The right shoulder still serves as key resistance as a range between 4.1950 and 4.2000. Closing above would invalidate this setup, exposing 4.2270. Otherwise, a turn lower places the focus on a potential rising support line from March.
To stay updated on fundamental developments for ASEAN currencies such as INR and IDR, you may follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX
USD/MYR Daily Chart
USD/SGD Technical Outlook
Against the Singapore Dollar, the US Dollar may accelerate its upside progress however. This comes after USD/SGD took out the key psychological barrier between 1.3808 and 1.3836. This has exposed the August highs as the next level of critical resistance which is a range between 1.3906 and 1.3942. USD/SGD’s uptrend is being held intact by rising support from July – red line on the chart below.
Check out my overview of the Singapore Dollar to get acquainted with its unique characteristics in forex
USD/SGD Daily Chart
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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com
To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter
DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.