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Turkish Lira Technical Forecast: USD/TRY Price -Back to the Consolidation Zone

Turkish Lira Technical Forecast: USD/TRY Price -Back to the Consolidation Zone

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst


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USD/TRY Price Outlook

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USD/TRY – Stuck in a Trendless Move

Recently, USD/TRY has started a sideways move creating a higher low at 5.6606 with a lower high at 5.7509. On Monday, the pair declined to its lowest level in six weeks at 5.6380 however, the price rallied and returned back to the same trendless pattern.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remained flat since mid-Sep highlighting the sellers and buyer’s lack of impulse to lead the price in a clear direction.

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USD/TRY DAILY PRICE CHART (May 28, 2018 – Nov 2, 2019) Zoomed Out

USDTRY price daily chart 02-10-19 Zoomed out

USD/TRY DAILY PRICE CHART (July 5 – Nov 2, 2019) Zoomed In

USDTRY price daily chart 02-10-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart, we notice since Sep 4 USD/TRY has rebounded in multiple occasions nearby the low end of the trading zone 5.6550- 5.8250.

Yesterday, USDTRY closed above the low end of the zone and 50day average. Thus, the price may be on its way for a test of the high end of the zone contingent on clearing the Sep 11 high underscored on the chart (zoomed in). Further close above the high end may open the door for more bullishness towards 6.1321. Although, the weekly resistance levels underlined on the chart should be kept in focus.

That said, any close below the low end of the zone could see USDTRY trading towards 5.4635. In that scenario the weekly support area and levels marked on the chart should be watched along the way.

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USD/TRY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (Aug 8, – Nov 2, 2019)

USDTRY price four-hour chart 02-10-19

From the four-hour chart, we notice today USD/TRY tested its highest level in nearly three weeks then rebounded from the uptrend line originated from the Aug 8 low at 5.4508.

Hence, a break above 5.7922 may send USDTRY towards 5.8507. However, the high end of the aforementioned trading zone would be worth monitoring.

On the flip side, a break below 5.6216 could resume bearish price action towards 5.5459. Nevertheless, the weekly support level underscored on the chart should be watched closely.

See the chart to know more about the higher/lower technical levels in a further bullish or bearish move.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.