We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Silver: 0.42% Gold: 0.41% Oil - US Crude: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/qdRVEtYobI
  • I am genuinely curious how Saudi Arabia got production back up so quickly. Makes it seem like they had massive spare capacity that was idled or they just ran a big garden hose around the portion of the plants that was destroyed...
  • US and Chinese 'deputies' are due to restart negotiations today. Meanwhile, the cumulative pain of tariffs continues to show through. FedEx earnings are an example. Here is $FDX overlaid with the Yuan-Dollar exchange rate (green) https://t.co/WZtuuUkhE7
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.67%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 85.67%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/T417OE2Mmy
  • $NZDUSD: A close below the low end of the zone could send NZD/USD towards 0.6136. Get your #technicalanalysis from @malkudsi here: https://t.co/i2YMDFJkRp https://t.co/TuvWNJZtgg
  • Indices Update: As of 18:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: US 500: 0.22% Wall Street: 0.13% Germany 30: -0.04% France 40: -0.07% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#indices https://t.co/aDo9IwMads
  • Re-upping this. https://t.co/SUv8Lzbhxu
  • $USDCAD: The broader focus remains on a break of the 1.3155- 1.3355 zone for guidance on our near-term directional bias. Get your technical analysis from @MBForex here: https://t.co/q1UJdW49AW https://t.co/OR0Gl1YPIn
  • Precious Metals Update: #Gold 1,499.19 (+0.35%), #Aluminum 1,785.50 (-0.36%), and #Copper 5,814.00 (-0.12%). [delayed]
  • RT @BobOnMarkets: In other words, juts like back before forward guidance led markets to price out risk premiums and over-inflate asset pric…
US Dollar, Euro Technical Outlook: Poised for Larger Breakout

US Dollar, Euro Technical Outlook: Poised for Larger Breakout

2019-08-16 09:30:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
Share:

USD, Euro Technical Highlights:

  • USD Index (DXY) set to make a lasting break higher soon
  • Euro will naturally be the currency to lead the move

Check out the intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook in the Q3 USD Forecast.

USD Index (DXY) set to make a lasting break higher soon

It’s been a grind trading the Dollar as a whole, with the US Dollar Index (DXY) chopping around for over a year. A strong move during the first 7-8 months of 2018 has given way to a slow grind higher. At some point this will end, the strong up, then grind higher pattern appears likely to resolve higher.

A break above the upper parallel in place since late 2016 along with the upper parallel from the grinding channel since a year-ago should get the DXY moving towards the 2017 highs or better. But there is still room for these low momentum moves to crack lower and, in this scenario, take the Dollar towards the 2011 trend-line.

This is seen as the lesser likely scenario, but can’ be ruled out. A weekly close below 95.84 (June low) could prove to be pivotal and catch the crowd leaning the wrong way. A break against the trend could spark a strong move lower to the trend-line off the 2011 low running under the 2018 trough.

The key in either scenario is for a breakout of either of the aforementioned technical thresholds. Once a breakout takes shape, we can move in to the shorter-term time-frames to identify set-ups along the path of least resistance…

US Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly Chart (ready to launch or fail?)

US Dollar, Euro Technical Outlook: Poised for Larger Breakout

U.S. Dollar Currency Index (DXY) by Tradingview

Euro will naturally be the currency to lead the move

Accounting for ~57% of the DXY the Euro will naturally be a part of the move. The grind since last year has been, well, a real grind, but this won’t last forever. A breakdown below the lower trend-line running over from last year will have EURUSD trading towards the April 2017 French election gap-fill and the 2000 trend-line. On the flip-side, a break above 11412 should have the 2008 trend-line in focus.

EURUSD Weekly Chart (ready to make a move...)

US Dollar, Euro Technical Outlook: Poised for Larger Breakout

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.