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Turkish Lira Price: USD/TRY Possible Reversal at Multi Month Low

Turkish Lira Price: USD/TRY Possible Reversal at Multi Month Low

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst
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USD/TRY Price Outlook

Check our latest Q3 forecasts for free and learn what is likely to move the markets at this time of the year.

USD/TRY – Trading Lower

Last week USD declined against Turkish Lira hitting its lowest levels in near four month. USD/TRY closed the weekly candlestick with 1.9% loss, emphasizing the bearish outlook of the market at this stage.

Since the end of May, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) has been moving below 50. The oscillator failed twice to cross above this threshold, indicating the buyer’s weakness to start a bullish momentum.

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USD/TRY DAILY PRICE CHART (May 3, 2018 – AUG 7, 2019) Zoomed Out

USDTRY price daily chart 07-08-19 Zoomed Out

USD/TRY DAILY PRICE CHART (April 25 – AUG 7, 2019) Zoomed In

USDTRY price daily chart 07-08-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice, today USD/TRY nearing the low end of the current trading zone 5.4635 – 5.6550 as discussed in our latest update.

Therefore, a close below the low end of the zone, could lead the price towards 5.3033. Although, the weekly support levels marked on the chart (zoomed in) would be worth monitoring.

On the other hand, if the pair fails to close below the low end of the zone, this could reverse its direction sending the price towards the high end of the zone. Nonetheless, the weekly and daily resistance levels underscored on the chart should be watched closely.

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USD/TRY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (July 8, – AUG 7, 2019)

USDTRY price four-hour chart 07-08-19

Looking at the four-hour chart, we notice USD/TRY has been in a downside move since the end of July. The pair corrected higher at the start of August creating a higher high at 5.6306 however, at the start of this week the price continued its downtrend creating lower highs with lower lows.

Thus, a break below 5.4462 may press the price lower towards 5.4060. Although, the weekly support level underlined on the chart needs to be considered. See the chart to know more about the next support levels sellers would encounter in a further bearish scenario.

On the flipside, a break above 5.5460 could push the price towards 5.5963. However, the daily resistance level underscored on the chart needs to be monitored. See the chart to find out more about the next resistance levels buyers would face in a further bullish scenario.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.