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USD/TRY Price Outlook: Turkish Lira Probs Multi-Months High –What is Next?

USD/TRY Price Outlook: Turkish Lira Probs Multi-Months High –What is Next?

Mahmoud Alkudsi, Analyst


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USD/TRY Price Forecast

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USD/TRY – Sellers in Charge

On Thursday USD/TRY spiked and rebounded nearby the July 12 high at 5.7080 then closed with a Doji pattern, indicating to the buyer’s indecision at this stage. On the following day, the sellers took advantage of the buyer's hesitation and pressed the price to its lowest in over a week.

Last week the Relative Strength Index (RSI) could not cross above 50, reflecting the buyers lack of momentum to start uptrend move. This week, the oscillator dropped from 41 to 32 emphasizing the seller's domination.

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USD/TRY DAILY PRICE CHART (JuNe 3, 2018 – JULY 31, 2019) Zoomed Out

USDTRY price daily chart 31-07-19 Zoomed Out

USD/TRY DAILY PRICE CHART (May 7 – JUL 31, 2019) Zoomed In

USDTRY price daily chart 31-07-19 Zoomed in

Looking at the daily chart we notice, on Monday USDTRY moved to the lower trading zone 5.4635 – 5.6550 and currently eyes a test of the low end of this zone. Hence, a close below the low end of the zone may send the price towards 5.3033. However, the weekly support levels marked on the chart (Zoomed in) need to be watched along the way.

On the flip-side, any failure to close below the low end of this zone could push the price towards the high end. Further close above the high end may cause more bullishness towards 5.8250. Although, the weekly resistance zones highlighted on the chart ( zoomed in) should be kept in focus.

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USD/TRY Four-HOUR PRICE CHART (July 8, 2019 – JuL 31, 2019)

USDTRY price four-hour chart 31-07-19

Looking at the four-hour chart we notice, on July 26 USD/TRY started a downtrend creating lower highs with lower lows. Yesterday, the downtrend accelerated after breaking below the July 4 low at 5.5849 and today the pair printed its lowest level in nearly three months.

Hence, a break below 5.4786 could send the price towards 5.4262 contingent on clearing the low end of the aforementioned trading zone. Additionally, the daily support level underlined on the chart should be considered.

On the other hand, if the down trend corrects higher then a break above 5.5970 may cause a rally towards the high end of the current trading zone. Nonetheless, the daily resistance level underscored on the chart needs to be monitored. See the chart to know more about the next significant resistance above mentioned levels.

Written By: Mahmoud Alkudsi

Please feel free to contact me on Twitter: @Malkudsi

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.