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USDMYR May Reverse Higher as USDINR Extends Downtrend From October

USDMYR May Reverse Higher as USDINR Extends Downtrend From October

2019-07-03 05:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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USDMYR, USDINR, USDPHP, USDSGD Talking Points

  • USDMYR could see a near-term reversal higher
  • USDINR may extend drop after clearing support
  • USDPHP eyeing 2013 trend line as SGD ranges

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USDMYR Technical Outlook

The US Dollar may be readying to turn higher against the Malaysian Ringgit, resuming the dominant uptrend that took USDMYR from lows above 4.050 in March to the peak under 4.2000 in May. Another Falling Wedge bullish pattern has been in the making on the daily chart below. The last time we saw a similar pattern was the one that that occurred before the uptrend mentioned beforehand.

However, this one is much smaller and calculating the widest point of the candlestick pattern should offer a target that brings USDMYR to test what could be a falling trend line from late May (blue line below). Getting there involves taking out potential areas of resistance such as at 4.1448 and then 4.1550. In the event of a turn lower, keep an eye on near-term support at 4.1250.

USDMYR Daily Chart

USDMYR May Reverse Higher as USDINR Extends Downtrend From October

USDINR Technical Outlook

Meanwhile, the Indian Rupee could be looking to extend gains against the US Dollar. On a daily chart, USDINR took out both a rising channel of support from March and a horizontal psychological barrier between 69.04 and 69.13. That paves the way for near-term declines in USDINR as it looks to potentially testing lows from earlier this year that also align with levels last achieved in July 2018.

That places the next range of support between 68.32 and 68.39 which may hold. In the event of a rise instead, keep an eye on the aforementioned levels that the currency pair broke through. They may reinstate themselves as resistance. Just above 69.13 lays a couple of falling resistance line from last year (pink lines below) that may prove to be a formidable barrier curbing upside progress.

USDINR Daily Chart

USDMYR May Reverse Higher as USDINR Extends Downtrend From October

USDPHP Technical Outlook

The Philippine Peso could be facing a similar situation as the Indian Rupee against USD. The difference here is that USDPHP, after clearing through key support levels pointed out last week, finds itself very close to a rising trend line that goes back to 2013 (highlighted in blue below). Such an important psychological barrier will likely make it difficult to sustain declines without a fight.

Needless to say, a break under it could be very consequential. With confirmation, this could mark a turning point for the USDPHP uptrend that has persisted for six years. Just below it lays 50.79 which is the December 2017 high. Otherwise, a reversal to the upside would eventually have to come to terms with a horizontal barrier between 51.59 and 51.69. This area kept USDPHP losses from sustaining for most of this year.

USDPHP Daily Chart

USDMYR May Reverse Higher as USDINR Extends Downtrend From October

USDSGD Technical Outlook

The USDSGD, in its downtrend from late May, finds itself consolidating between support at 1.3516 and resistance at 1.3575. A breakout to the downside exposes the rising trend line from January 2018 while one to the upside exposes what could be potential falling resistance from May (blue line on the chart below). You may follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX for more timely updates on ASEAN currencies.

USDSGD Daily Chart

USDMYR May Reverse Higher as USDINR Extends Downtrend From October

**All Charts Created in TradingView

Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn about the underlying drivers for these currencies!

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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