We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Bullish
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • Commodities Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Gold: 0.05% Oil - US Crude: -0.38% Silver: -0.41% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/9AiehtJMsK
  • The Norwegian Krone and crude #oil prices will be in for turbulent week ahead of an avalanche of central bank rate decisions against the backdrop of political volatility in the middle east. Get your market update from @ZabelinDimitri here: https://t.co/1PKtivOiFv #OOTT https://t.co/IdHpQbAgNe
  • Fantastic thread on the #Fed including explainer on recent repo market cash crunch PS - I highly encourage giving @Trinhnomics a follow https://t.co/GYwqXuTfjY
  • Forex Update: As of 02:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: -0.04% 🇪🇺EUR: -0.04% 🇬🇧GBP: -0.06% 🇯🇵JPY: -0.09% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.20% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.23% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/x5I15C64eW
  • #USDJPY's uptrend has stalled, probably while the market awaits the #Fed. It's looking a little stretched but not seriously threatened. https://www.dailyfx.com/forex/technical/home/analysis/usd-jpy/2019/09/18/Japanese-Yen-Remains-Defensive-As-Dollar-Bulls-Eye-Key-Resistance-.html?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Cottle&utm_campaign=twr
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.68%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 81.16%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/k2BRFZYdBl
  • 🇦🇺 AUD Unemployment Rate (AUG), Actual: N/A Expected: 5.2% Previous: 5.2% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2019-09-19
  • Cautious "risk-off" tilt at early phase of Wednesday's session. Pro-risk #AUD and #NZD falling alongside #Nikkei225 futures as haven-linked #USD rises. Follow-through may be lacking until the #Fed passes later today https://t.co/0TLRTELdWv
  • How can traders avoid #FOMOintrading? Start by implementing a well-heeled plan taking only four hours per week. Get your insight from @JStanleyFX here: https://t.co/vwUShQPc27 https://t.co/DRa1lwjBWp
  • RT @NickTimiraos: There will be a temptation to call any resumption of balance sheet expansion by the Fed quantitative easing, which isn't…
Crude Oil Price Action Weak, Has Room to Drop

Crude Oil Price Action Weak, Has Room to Drop

2019-06-17 08:30:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
Share:

Crude Oil Price Highlights:

  • Crude oil bounce has been weak, wedge could be forming
  • WTI has room to 46 area before long-term trend-lines
  • Brent contract has further to fall before finding similar support

For fundamental and technical forecasts, trade ideas, and educational guides, check out the DailyFX Trading Guides page.

Crude oil bounce has been weak, wedge could be forming

Crude oil continues to be strikingly weak as its relationship to stocks and the ‘risk trade’ has become increasingly untethered. The initial bounce off the June low held some power, but the past couple of sessions after retesting the monthly low the bounce has been smaller.

A turn down from right around here (also the trend-line from last month) will help complete a descending wedge pattern. Given the general trend and nature of the pattern (lower high, flat bottom structure) it is anticipated that a downside break will develop.

A sustained decline through $50.54 should have the WTI contract picking up downside momentum again. The height of the wedge implies about a $4 drop, or about $46. This aligns with the weekly chart, where a confluence of support runs over from 2016.

A failure to roll down and break the $50.54 level will keep the outlook neutral, while some work on the upside will be needed to turn the trading bias bullish. The wedge could develop further and break to the top-side but risk of the breakout failing will be elevated given the generally weak backdrop in place.

WTI Crude Oil Weekly Chart (lines from 2016)

Crude Oil Price Action Weak, Has Room to Drop

WTI Crude Oil 4-hr Chart (weakening price action)

Crude Oil Price Action Weak, Has Room to Drop

Brent contract has further to fall before finding similar support

The Brent chart looks similar to WTI, of course, but has further to go before similar support is met. The same trend-lines from 2016 arrive in the vicinity of $55/52. A sustained drop below $60.28 is needed to give sellers traction again.

Brent Crude Weekly Chart (2016 lines down below)

Crude Oil Price Action Weak, Has Room to Drop

Brent Crude Oil 4-hr Chart (wedge could be building)

Crude Oil Price Action Weak, Has Room to Drop

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.