We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

Free Trading Guides
EUR/USD
Bullish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
GBP/USD
Bullish
USD/JPY
Mixed
Gold
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Mixed
Bitcoin
Bearish
More View more
Notice

DailyFX PLUS Content Now Available Freely to all DailyFX Users

Real Time News
  • $GBPUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.2329 S2: 1.2402 S1: 1.2439 R1: 1.2513 R2: 1.255 R3: 1.2623 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • $USDJPY Daily Pivot Points: S3: 107.56 S2: 107.94 S1: 108.17 R1: 108.55 R2: 108.71 R3: 109.09 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • Forex Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: 🇨🇭CHF: 0.46% 🇬🇧GBP: 0.44% 🇯🇵JPY: 0.37% 🇪🇺EUR: 0.10% 🇳🇿NZD: -0.30% 🇦🇺AUD: -0.51% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#currencies https://t.co/Sb9uhtKouK
  • Big news over the past couple of hours: - Norge’s Bank raises rates to 1.50% - #BOE says if #brexit uncertainty persist, likely to be weaker inflation - #ECB delivers 3.4 billion euros in a new round of long-term loans to banks (BBG)
  • Commodities Update: As of 20:00, these are your best and worst performers based on the London trading schedule: Oil - US Crude: 0.84% Gold: 0.31% Silver: 0.17% View the performance of all markets via https://www.dailyfx.com/forex-rates#commodities https://t.co/cCtIGXgMjw
  • IG Client Sentiment Update: Our data shows the vast majority of traders in Ripple are long at 97.67%, while traders in France 40 are at opposite extremes with 85.59%. See the summary chart below and full details and charts on DailyFX: https://www.dailyfx.com/sentiment https://t.co/L97bbhVulc
  • $EURUSD Daily Pivot Points: S3: 1.0927 S2: 1.0982 S1: 1.1007 R1: 1.1063 R2: 1.1094 R3: 1.1149 https://www.dailyfx.com/pivot-points?ref=SubNav?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=DFXGeneric&utm_campaign=twr
  • With the EU-UK #Brexit negotiations ongoing and no certain path to an amicable resolution, the @bankofengland has warned that it may cut rates soon. Where is $GBUSD heading? Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/CKPGqolOAR https://t.co/E7dGEiKVYP
  • US Equities Update (Thursday Close): $DJI -0.19% $SPX -0.04% $NDX +0.17% $RTY -0.40% $VIX +0.79%
  • As I listen to music while analyzing, I remind myself that: SRV > Jimi #ControversialViews
Crude Oil Price May Be Carving Out a Top

Crude Oil Price May Be Carving Out a Top

2019-05-20 11:00:00
Paul Robinson, Currency Strategist
Share:

Crude Oil Price Highlights:

  • WTI crude oil trading at 2016 t-line, lower-high could be near
  • Brent oil trading at underside of multi-month channel
  • Short-term price structures to pay attention to

To see what fundamental drivers are expected to drive oil through the remainder of the quarter, check out the Q2 Crude Oil Forecast.

WTI crude oil trading at 2016 t-line, lower-high could be near

The WTI crude oil contract is getting a lift off confluent support after looking like it might have been dead in the water. This has kept the upside in play, but a broader bullish outlook could quickly come back under fire if we see a meaningful turn lower from around current levels.

The Feb 2016 trend-line is just above the overnight high. A turn down from there will immediately have support in focus, but even as such price action will certainly increase the probability that recent strength will result in a lower-high relative to the peak carved out in April.

To validate this scenario the channel line from January will need to be broken along with the 200-day and the powerful reversal-day low on May 6 at 59.98. Looking a little deeper, on the hourly chart a channel is developing with a clear set of boundaries thus far.

This pattern, with a little more time, developing between resistance and support could offer traders even greater clarity as to how to play oil. A breakout of a well-defined range could offer a decisive trading bias, with the downside likely holding more power given the strong level of support that will have to be breached in order to get oil rolling downhill.

WTI Crude Oil Price Chart (underside of 2016 t-line)

Crude Oil Price May Be Carving Out a Top

WTI Crude Oil Hourly Chart (channel forming)

Crude Oil Price May Be Carving Out a Top

Brent contract may be more vulnerable should weakness set in

The Brent contract is postured a little bit differently with its notable resistance level arriving at the underside of the same channel that WTI is still using as support. It has seen one powerful rejection of this line, occurring last Monday.

The technical structure on the short-term chart also has a bit of a variation too when compared WTI. Brent is taking on more of the shape of a rising corrective-looking wedge. This implies the sea-saw price action of late will lead to a down-move soon.

A solid downside break of the pattern will quickly have pressure brought on the 69.23 low from May 6 and the 200-day that lies only about 10 cents beyond there. A break of both of these thresholds should usher in another round of selling. No downside break, then look for neutral to higher prices, but from where I sit it won’t hold as much appeal for a long.

Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart (underside of January-May channel)

Crude Oil Price May Be Carving Out a Top

Brent Crude Oil 4-hr Chart (corrective-looking wedge)

Crude Oil Price May Be Carving Out a Top

Forex & CFD Trader Resources

Whether you are a new or experienced trader, we have several resources available to help you; indicator for tracking trader sentiment, quarterly trading forecasts, analytical and educational webinars held daily, trading guides to help you improve trading performance, and one specifically for those who are new to forex.

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX

provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES

News & Analysis at your fingertips.