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USD/IDR, USD/SGD May Reverse. USD/PHP Upside Breakout Fell Short

USD/IDR, USD/SGD May Reverse. USD/PHP Upside Breakout Fell Short

2019-05-01 03:30:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst


  • USD/IDR, USD/SGD upside breakouts may fall short
  • USD/PHP testing support after false upside breakout
  • USD/MYR uptrend on pause with prices consolidating

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USD/IDR Technical Outlook

The Indonesian Rupiah continued to depreciate against the US Dollar after clearing what was near-term resistance at 14089, as anticipated. We have now seen the best consecutive rising streak (8 days) in over a year. However, a Shooting Star candle warns of indecision after USD/IDR broke above the falling trend line from December. As such, its upside breakout should be treated with caution. It may very well turn lower tower as its next move in the near-term. Still, clearing resistance above 14255 opens the door to testing 14340.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

USD/IDR, USD/SGD May Reverse. USD/PHP Upside Breakout Fell Short

USD/SGD Technical Outlook

A Shooting Star is also present in USD/SGD after its false breakout above former resistance at 1.3616. In this situation, there has been follow-through via further closes to the downside which helps to confirm the indecisive candlestick pattern. As such, this means that the Singapore Dollar may appreciate against the Greenback in the near-term.

This places near-term support at 1.3575 which acted as past resistance on the chart below. May’s Fed rate decision is clouding the fundamental outlook as there may be bullish implications for the US Dollar. I will be tweeting the aftermath of the Fed and the reaction in ASEAN currencies. Feel free to follow me on Twitter @ddubrovskyFXfor these updates.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/IDR, USD/SGD May Reverse. USD/PHP Upside Breakout Fell Short

USD/PHP Technical Outlook

USD/PHP’s upside breakout through a trend line from March was short-lived after resistance held under 52.24. Fundamentally, the largest drop in USD/PHP in just about a month occurred after S&P Global Ratings raised the Philippines sovereign credit rating on Tuesday. This lead the Philippine Peso back towards support at just above 51.59. If this area if broken, it would open the door to testing levels not seen since February 2018. Be mindful of positive RSI divergence which may hint at ebbing downside momentum.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/IDR, USD/SGD May Reverse. USD/PHP Upside Breakout Fell Short

USD/MYR Technical Outlook

Meanwhile, the US Dollar’s uptrend against the Malaysian Ringgit has taken a pause with prices consolidating between support (4.1250) and resistance (4.1448). This follows a break above the falling trend line from November which reversed the dominant downtrend in USD/MYR since then. Inversely to the Philippine Peso, we may see negative RSI divergence emerge should there be an attempt for uptrend resumption which could be a downward risk for the pair.

USD/MYR Daily Chart

USD/IDR, USD/SGD May Reverse. USD/PHP Upside Breakout Fell Short

**All Charts Created in TradingView

Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn about the underlying drivers for these currencies!

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.


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