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USD/PHP May Rise. USD/IDR, USD/MYR Bullish Reversals Eye Obstacles

USD/PHP May Rise. USD/IDR, USD/MYR Bullish Reversals Eye Obstacles

2019-03-13 03:30:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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ASEAN Technical Outlook – USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR

  • USD/PHP may climb on fundamental and technical cues
  • USD/IDR and USD/MYR bullish reversals face obstacles
  • USD/SGD may fall to the lower boundary of consolidation

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USD/PHP Technical Analysis – Dominant Downtrend at Risk

The Philippine Peso is undermined by bearish fundamental and technical cues that may precede more weakness to come. Regarding the former, the newly-appointed governor of the Philippine central bank, Benjamin Diokno, brought with him a relatively dovish outlook. He signaled monetary easing to come, more room for USD/PHP to rise and scope for cutting the ratio which banks must hold in reserves.

Technically, this led to USD/PHP’s largest single-day rise since June 2013, almost six years ago! The US Dollar cleared a descending channel of resistance against the Philippine Peso on the chart below (pink parallel lines). This has opened the door to reversing the dominant downtrend from the latter-half of 2018. Clearing resistance at 53.03 exposes 53.59. Follow me on Twitter here @ddubrovskyFX for updates in major moves in ASEAN currencies as well as fundamental developments in the interim.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/PHP May Rise. USD/IDR, USD/MYR Bullish Reversals Eye Obstacles

USD/SGD Technical Analysis – Eyeing Horizontal Range Support?

As anticipated, USD/SGD rose after clearing the falling resistance line from December. But, progress thereafter fell apart after horizontal resistance held at 1.36155. This is now the third time the Singapore Dollar regained control against its US counterpart at the same place. As a result, USD/SGD could now be aiming for the lower boundary of what has been consolidation since the beginning of this year at 1.3471 – 1.3443.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/PHP May Rise. USD/IDR, USD/MYR Bullish Reversals Eye Obstacles

USD/IDR Technical Analysis – Bullish Reversal Meets Next Barrier

The US Dollar has made strong progress against the Indonesian Rupiah in the aftermath of a bullish inverse head and shoulders candlestick formation as expected. But, in USD/IDR’s ascent, a falling trend line from December seems to have reinforced itself. At the same time, prices stalled their ascent around former support from December at 14340 which is now acting as resistance. Clearing this area may open the door to more gains while near-term support seems to be at 14215.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

USD/PHP May Rise. USD/IDR, USD/MYR Bullish Reversals Eye Obstacles

USD/MYR Technical Analysis – Bullish Reversal Formation Still in Play

Like with the Indonesian Rupiah, the Malaysian Ringgit is also undermined by a bullish reversal pattern. This one is a falling wedge. USD/MYR broke to the upside of the candlestick formation, but resistance at 4.0925 prevented further gains. While the Malaysian Ringgit could appreciate against the US Dollar, keep a close eye on the resistance line of the falling wedge on the chart below. It may reinstate itself as support, preventing further USD/MYR declines.

USD/MYR Daily Chart

USD/PHP May Rise. USD/IDR, USD/MYR Bullish Reversals Eye Obstacles

**All Charts Created in TradingView

Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn about the underlying drivers for these currencies!

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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