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ASEAN Technical Outlook – USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR

  • US Dollar may be readying to turn higher against the Singapore Dollar
  • USD/IDR and USD/PHP appear to be aiming at familiar support again
  • Fading downside momentum undermines declines USD/MYR may see

We released our Q1 forecasts for currencies like the US Dollar in the DailyFX Trading Guides page

USD/SGD Technical Analysis – Bullish Reversal Threat Increases

The US Dollar seems to be preparing for a bullish push against the Singapore Dollar. On the USD/SGD daily chart below, I highlighted an inverse head and shoulders pattern which has been brewing after the pair turned lower last week as expected. This is considered as a bullish reversal formation. Prices have stopped their descent on the right shoulder at 1.35237. If this holds, the neckline could be targeted next at 1.36155.

As always, patterns require confirmation. If a daily close is achieved above 1.36155, the dominant downtrend since November 2018 could be at risk of reversing. On the other hand, a descent opens the door to testing 1.34562 which is the head of the candlestick formation. For updates on the ASEAN pairs that I am closely watching in the interim, you may follow me on Twitter @ddubrovskyFX.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/SGD, USD/MYR May Turn Higher as USD/IDR, USD/PHP Eye Support

USD/IDR Technical Analysis – Rising Support Line Break

Initially, USD/IDR made upside progress last week as anticipated when I noted that downside momentum was fading. Since then, the pair has turned lower and broken through a rising support line from earlier this month. This has opened the door to resuming the dominant downtrend since November and has 14000 eyed as immediate support. A close under that exposes 13923. Meanwhile, resistance seems to be at 14215.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

USD/SGD, USD/MYR May Turn Higher as USD/IDR, USD/PHP Eye Support

USD/MYR Technical Analysis – Resistance Break Fell Short

Sometimes breaks above/below resistance/support don’t always result in continuation. This was the case with USD/MYR. Prices pushed through a falling trend line from January, climbing to resistance just under 4.0925. Since then, the Malaysian Ringgit appreciated as the pair fell to support at 4.0650. Positive RSI divergence does signal fading downside momentum which may precede another retest of resistance at 4.0925.

USD/MYR Daily Chart

USD/SGD, USD/MYR May Turn Higher as USD/IDR, USD/PHP Eye Support

USD/PHP Technical Analysis – Will Critical Support Hold…Again?

The Philippine Peso initially depreciated against the US Dollar last week as anticipated, highlighting the presence of positive RSI divergence. However, USD/PHP turned lower after key resistance held at 52.50. Fundamentally, recent declines seemed to be the result of dovish Fed commentary and a ‘risk on’ trading environment on Tuesday. This has created what appears to be a new descending range of resistance. Near-term support remains as an area between 52.00 and 51.93 which may again prevent a push lower.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/SGD, USD/MYR May Turn Higher as USD/IDR, USD/PHP Eye Support

**All Charts Created in TradingView

Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn about the underlying drivers for these currencies!

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter