Gold continues to respect support and may have another angle of support to further its stance, but it needs to get going soon or runs the risk of rolling over. WTI Crude oil tagged off on support on Monday, while Brent has a more bullish stance. The S&P 500 continues to be a beast, a strong push above the 200-day MA will have it right in the thick of resistance around the 2800-mark.
Technical Highlights:
- Gold price holding support, get into gear or fail?
- Crude oil contracts trying to rally, WTI & Brent have differing looks
- S&P 500 breakout above 200-day will have big resistance in focus
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Gold price holding support, get into gear or fail?
As I wrote earlier this morning, gold is sitting on support and may get some more help via the trend-line from November. But while the trend is higher and support is at its feet, a move higher needs to develop or soon confidence will weaken.
For now, respecting support – stay above then the outlook is at worst neutral. Start to roll down below the November trend-line and the picture will turn bearish. Gold held during the Dollar’s 8-day run, but yesterday when it sold off gold failed to find any meaning in it. Sticking with gold’s backdrop first, what the Dollar is doing secondarily.
Gold Daily Chart (support keeps a bid in for now)
For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook check out the Gold Forecast
Crude oil contracts trying to rally, WTI & Brent have differing looks
Crude oil touched off near 51 support on Monday and posted a smallish reversal day. This blew a little life into the commodity, and while its been a choppy past few weeks the chart is still tilted higher in the intermediate-term.
However, if the current push higher fails soon and rolls over, a head-and-shoulders pattern could come into play with defined support near 51 as the line-in-the-sand. This is only a scenario, one we’ll discuss further should it become relevant.
WTI Crude Oil 4-hr Chart (Modestly bullish sequence)
For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook check out the Crude Oil Forecast
The Brent contract is postured more bullishly than WTI, looking to work its way higher out of an ascending wedge. It will need to cross above the 2016 trend-line to further itself along, but between the bullish price action and big line-in-the-sand, a sizable pop could unfold.
Brent Crude Oil Daily Chart (ascending wedge right at big resistance)
S&P 500 breakout above 200-day will have big resistance in focus
The S&P 500 found another round of strong sponsorship after dipping, an expectation I did not have given its extended run into the 200-day MA. A push on through the 200-day has price resistance in the 2800/17 vicinity in sight. From a trading standpoint the trend is still higher ad while it can be difficult to buy momentum in stocks, shorts, outside of intra-day scalps, are even more difficult. A run-in with 2800 and reversal could quickly change that.
S&P 500 Daily Chart (2800-area may soon be in play)
For an intermediate-term fundamental and technical outlook check out the Global Equities Forecast
Resources for Index & Commodity Traders
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We also have a series of guides for those looking to trade specific markets, such as the S&P 500, Dow, DAX, gold, silver, crude oil, and copper.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinsonFX
