News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Sources close to the Chinese Government have told Asia Markets a deal that will see China Evergrande (3333 HK) restructured into three seperate entities is currently being finalised by the Chinese Communist Party and could be announced within days.
  • Shadow MPC as hawkish as ever - They have been calling for the BoE to end QE early since June - Often a big difference in what people think a central bank should do and will do https://t.co/RAakSI8gI6
  • Trading bias allows traders to make informative decisions when dealing in the market. This relates to both novice and experienced traders alike. Start learning how you may be able to make more informed decisions here: https://t.co/rz7fqi8ZEe https://t.co/XfrcQXJu0Z
  • IFO lowers German 2021 GDP growth forecast to 2.5% from 3.3% - Raises 2022 forecast to 5.1% from 4.3%
  • 🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) Actual: 4.9% Expected: 4.8% Previous: 4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • 🇹🇼 Unemployment Rate (AUG) Actual: 4.08% Previous: 4.36% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇹🇼 Unemployment Rate (AUG) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Previous: 4.36% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:🇿🇦 Inflation Rate YoY (AUG) due at 08:00 GMT (15min) Expected: 4.8% Previous: 4.6% https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • Heads Up:💶 ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting due at 08:00 GMT (15min) https://www.dailyfx.com/economic-calendar#2021-09-22
  • ECB's Muller - ECB to discuss raising regular QE when PEPP ends $EUR
Oil Q1 Technical Forecast: WTI Crude Price Range at Best, Bear Breakdown at Worst

Oil Q1 Technical Forecast: WTI Crude Price Range at Best, Bear Breakdown at Worst

Tyler Yell, CMT, Currency Strategist

Naturally, oil is a key factor in global growth and is acutely sensitive to oversupply given the homogeneity of crude. When global risk markets topped in early October, few saw what was on the horizon before 2018’s end. October brought 2018’s second risk of heart-attack (with first one in February that aggressively brought down risky assets). On October 3, crude traded at a 4-year high of $76.81/bbl, but near the end of December, the market had fallen to the mid-$40/bbl level.

Oil Price Chart: Monthly Timeframe (May 2013 to December 2018)

Oil Q1 Technical Forecast: WTI Crude Price Range at Best, Bear Breakdown at Worst

Chart Created by Tyler Yell, CMT

The chart above begins in H1 2014 before the last oil crash with Ichimoku and Andrew’s Pitchfork applied. Ichimoku is a wonderful trend following indicator that is known for the cloud that acts as support in an uptrend and resistance in a downtrend. Naturally, we’re currently focusing on the latter.

Technically, only a break above the cloud that stretches from $53-$60 would shift the view from neutral at best or bearish at worst in a similar vein of 2014 to neutral. Until then, the focus remains sideways or down.

Lastly, the labels (a-b-c and 1-2-3) align with Elliott Wave analysis. Specifically, the view above notes that the 2016-2018 move may have simply been a countertrend rally and that we’re now starting an impulsive decline similar to 2014.

See the complete Q1'19 Oil forecast as well as forecasts for other major currencies, equities, and Gold.

--- Written by Tyler Yell, CMT, Forex Trading Instructor

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES