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USD/IDR Risks Reversal While USD/MYR Price Eyes Uptrend Resumption

USD/IDR Risks Reversal While USD/MYR Price Eyes Uptrend Resumption

2018-10-24 04:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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ASEAN Technical Outlook – USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR

  • The USD/IDR weekly price chart shows numerous bearish reversal warning signs
  • Meanwhile USD/MYR climbs above resistance as it attempts uptrend resumption
  • USD/PHP faces the next critical barrier in its decline as USD/SGD consolidates

We released our 4Q forecasts for currencies like the US Dollar in the DailyFX Trading Guides page

USD/IDR Technical Analysis – Reversal Next?

The Indonesian Rupiah remains in consolidation mode against the US Dollar, but zooming in on the weekly chart reveals that some indecision is present. A shooting star bearish reversal pattern has been followed by a spinning top formation. In addition, negative RSI divergence warns that upside momentum is fading. This may be a precursor for a turn lower in USD/IDR and near-term support is a rising trend line from August which is then followed by the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 15,038.

USD/IDR Weekly Chart

USD/IDR Risks Reversal While USD/MYR Price Eyes Uptrend Resumption

USD/MYR Technical Analysis – Dominant Uptrend Resumes

The US Dollar has resumed appreciating against the Malaysian Ringgit and has now cleared the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 4.1603. This has exposed near-term resistance which is the 38.2% level at 4.1809. Meanwhile support appears to be a rising trend line from early September. A descent through that opens the door for USD/MYR to test 4.1475 which is former horizontal resistance from last month.

USD/MYR Daily Chart

USD/IDR Risks Reversal While USD/MYR Price Eyes Uptrend Resumption

USD/PHP Technical Analysis – Will Support Hold?

The Philippine Peso continues gaining ground against the US Dollar following numerous bearish reversal warning signs. However, USD/PHP faces its next critical challenge and that is a range of support between the June 2006 and June 2018 highs (53.59 – 53.74). Should the pair fall through it, the May trend line is the final barrier preventing a reversal of the dominant uptrend from January. Near-term resistance is a descending trend line from September.

Correction: last week I incorrectly pointed out multiple evening stars in USD/PHP which should have been labeled as shooting stars.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/IDR Risks Reversal While USD/MYR Price Eyes Uptrend Resumption

USD/SGD Technical Analysis – Consolidation Mode

Meanwhile the Singapore Dollar remains in a consolidation mode against its US counterpart. Near-term resistance is holding at 1.38185. If USD/SGD pushes above that, it exposes the July 2017 high around 1.38633 which also closely aligns with the current 2018 high. Descending through 1.37289 on the other hand opens the door to testing a rising range of support from June.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/IDR Risks Reversal While USD/MYR Price Eyes Uptrend Resumption

**All Charts Created in TradingView

Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn about the underlying drivers for these currencies!

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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