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USD/PHP Reverses But Can Declines Last? USD/MYR, USD/PHP May Fall

USD/PHP Reverses But Can Declines Last? USD/MYR, USD/PHP May Fall

2018-10-18 02:30:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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ASEAN Technical Outlook – USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR

  • USD/PHP reverses lower as expected, but chart support is holding for now
  • USD/MYR, USD/IDR are showing signs of turning lower as the next move
  • USD/SGD falls under trend line support but downside progress was lacking

Join our Chinese GDP data live webinar coverage as we cover its impact on the Australian Dollar and stocks (Begins 10/19 at 01:45 GMT)

USD/PHP Technical Analysis – Downtrend Ensues

As expected, bearish reversal warnings ended up preceding a pullback in USD/PHP. A trio combination of evening stars, negative RSI divergence and a descent through near-term ascending support has resulted in the Philippine Peso gaining some ground against the US Dollar.

Now keeping USD/PHP prices from rising is a descending resistance line from earlier this month. Should the pair climb above that, resistance could hold at 54.43 next. Meanwhile, resumption of the downtrend would involve clearing 53.74 which would expose the June 2006 high.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

USD/PHP Reverses But Can Declines Last? USD/MYR, USD/PHP May Fall

USD/MYR Technical Analysis – Downtrend to Take Place?

The Malaysian Ringgit also appreciated against the US Dollar since we last looked at USD/MYR. Zooming in on the daily chart shows that there was a break under a near-term rising support line from late September. However. Former resistance now support is holding at 4.1475.

We still have the presence of negative RSI divergence, which warns that upside momentum is still fading. A descent through support will expose the late September lows around 4.1270. Meanwhile near-term resistance appears to be the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 4.1603.

USD/MYR Daily Chart

USD/PHP Reverses But Can Declines Last? USD/MYR, USD/PHP May Fall

USD/IDR Technical Analysis – Consolidation Mode

The Indonesian Rupiah took a breather from weakness against the US Dollar in recent days as resistance formed around 15,258. USD/IDR is now in consolidation mode with support seeming to hold up at 15,198 which is the 38.2% Fibonacci extension. A turn lower places the 23.6% level as near-term support around 15,038 which is closely aligned with a rising trend line from August. Meanwhile a push above 15,258 exposes the 61.8% Fibonacci extension at 15,457.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

USD/PHP Reverses But Can Declines Last? USD/MYR, USD/PHP May Fall

USD/SGD Technical Analysis – Support Holds After Reversal

The warning from last week that upside momentum was fading in the Singapore Dollar ended up baring significance, USD/SGD fell under a rising support line from September and made cautious progress to the downside. This was amplified by a rather hawkish MAS policy announcement last week.

In the meantime, the pair has been unable to follow through after descending through support around 1.37451. A decline under the October 17th low at 1.37289 exposes a rising range of resistance from June. Meanwhile near-term resistance is at 1.38185 followed by the July 2017 high at 1.38633.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

USD/PHP Reverses But Can Declines Last? USD/MYR, USD/PHP May Fall

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Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn about the underlying drivers for these currencies!

Check out our preview of Chinese GDP data to see how it can impact stocks and emerging markets!

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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