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US Dollar Struggling Versus SGD as USD/IDR and USD/MYR Prices Rise

US Dollar Struggling Versus SGD as USD/IDR and USD/MYR Prices Rise

2018-10-10 03:30:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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ASEAN Technical Outlook – USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR

  • USD/SGD upside momentum fading on weekly chart, now below resistance
  • Indonesian Rupiah and Malaysian Ringgit continue facing selling pressure
  • USD/PHP showing multiple reversal warning signs as BSP intervenes rate

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USD/SGD Technical Analysis – Upside Momentum Fading?

On a weekly chart, the Singapore Dollar weakened against its US counterpart to its lowest since July 2017. USD/SGD also closed just above near-term horizontal resistance at 1.38185. It also achieved its most aggressive climb over the course of one week since June at +1.11%. However, negative RSI divergence warns that upside momentum is ebbing.

USD/SGD Weekly Chart

US Dollar Struggling Versus SGD as USD/IDR and USD/MYR Prices Rise

Zooming in on the daily USD/SGD chart, we can see that thus far the pair is struggling to hold on to its push above resistance. This followed the longest consecutive rising streak, at 6 days, since April 2017. Should the Singapore Dollar continue making gains against its US cousin, we may see it test near-term support at 1.37451 followed by a rising range dating back to June. Ascending above resistance exposes the June 2017 high.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

US Dollar Struggling Versus SGD as USD/IDR and USD/MYR Prices Rise

USD/PHP Technical Analysis – Currency Intervention?

Since our last update, the Philippine Peso spent much of its time consolidating against the US Dollar as expected. Negative RSI divergence also warns that upside momentum is ebbing and the presence of multiple shooting star candlesticks should be heeded. While they do indicate indecision, they may precede a reversal of the dominant uptrend since January. On the flipside, these may also reflect efforts from the Philippine central bank as it took actions to stem a selloff in its currency amidst USD gains.

For the time being, a near-term rising trend line from August seems to be keeping USD/PHP prices from heading lower. Descending through it exposes the 50% midpoint of the Fibonacci extension which is also sitting right under the late September lows around 53.87. Immediate resistance appears to be the collection of recent highs at 54.43.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

US Dollar Struggling Versus SGD as USD/IDR and USD/MYR Prices Rise

USD/IDR Technical Analysis – Upside Momentum Picking Up Pace?

The Indonesian Rupiah ended up brushing off declining upside momentum as USD/IDR posted its largest weekly gain (+1.67%) since late June. With the dominant uptrend now picking up pace, the pair faces immediate resistance at 15,328 which is the 50% midpoint of the Fibonacci extension. Ascending through that exposes the 61.8% level at 15,457. A descent through support opens the door to testing 15,038.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

US Dollar Struggling Versus SGD as USD/IDR and USD/MYR Prices Rise

USD/MYR Technical Analysis – Consolidation Over?

Last but not least, the Malaysian Ringgit stepped outside of a consolidation range between 4.1270 and 4.1475 against the US Dollar. Now, USD/MYR is eyeing the 23.6% Fibonacci extension at 4.1607 which may hold as immediate resistance. A push above that opens the door to facing the 38.2% level at 4.1813. Meanwhile, near-term support is upper boundary of the former range followed by the lower one.

USD/MYR Weekly Chart

US Dollar Struggling Versus SGD as USD/IDR and USD/MYR Prices Rise

**All Charts Created in TradingView

Read this week’s ASEAN fundamental outlook to learn about the underlying drivers for these currencies!

Check out our primer on what is in store for emerging markets ahead which may also impact these currencies!

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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