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PHP, SGD, IDR, MYR Tech Outlook. Trend Resumption vs Consolidation

PHP, SGD, IDR, MYR Tech Outlook. Trend Resumption vs Consolidation

2018-10-04 02:00:00
Daniel Dubrovsky, Analyst
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ASEAN Technical Outlook – USD/PHP, USD/SGD, USD/IDR, USD/MYR

  • USD/IDR pushes higher as dominant uptrend may resume course next
  • As expected, critical support range prevented lasting USD/SGD losses
  • USD/MYR, USD/PHP may resume consolidation as momentum ebbs

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USD/IDR Technical Analysis – Dominant Uptrend Resumes

After weeks of consolidation between the September 2015 high and 14,930, USD/IDR broke higher as it aims to extend what essentially has been the dominant uptrend since January. However, negative RSI divergence warns that the US Dollar’s appreciation against the Indonesian Rupiah might be running out of steam. As such, IDR bears should proceed with caution. Near-term resistance is the 138.2% Fibonacci extension at 15,140 while support seems to be 15,003 followed by a near-term rising support line.

USD/IDR Daily Chart

PHP, SGD, IDR, MYR Tech Outlook. Trend Resumption vs Consolidation

USD/SGD Technical Analysis – Potential for Uptrend Resumption

As expected last week, the rising support channel in USD/SGD from June ultimately prevented the Singapore Dollar from further appreciating against its US counterpart. The August and September low at 1.36076 held firmly. The rebound in USD/SGD brought it back to key horizontal resistance at 1.38185. With that in mind, a push above that area may offer the opportunity to resume the dominant uptrend from April. This will have the Singapore Dollar facing the July and June 2017 highs at 1.38633 and 1.39112 respectively.

USD/SGD Daily Chart

PHP, SGD, IDR, MYR Tech Outlook. Trend Resumption vs Consolidation

USD/PHP Technical Analysis – Consolidation Mode Begins?

Initially, bearish reversal warning signs in USD/PHP last week ended up preceding a break under a near-term rising support line. But the breakout proved to be short lived as the Philippine Peso entered consolidation mode against the US Dollar. The lower end of support appears to be 53.875 while resistance seems to be just under 54.49. An ascent exposes 54.95 next while a descent through support will eventually have USD/PHP facing the June 2006 high. Though do keep in mind there seems to be some negative RSI divergence here.

USD/PHP Daily Chart

PHP, SGD, IDR, MYR Tech Outlook. Trend Resumption vs Consolidation

USD/MYR Technical Analysis – Uptrend Becomes Consolidation

Another ASEAN currency that has entered into consolidation and has been for some time now is the Malaysian Ringgit. While there seems to also be a break under the rising trend line from April, USD/MYR remains wedged in-between 4.1270 and 4.1475. Though do keep in mind that we also have negative RSI divergence here which may result in the pair’s next leg being lower. A descent through support exposes 4.1065 while a push above resistance opens the door to test 4.1617.

USD/MYR Daily Chart

PHP, SGD, IDR, MYR Tech Outlook. Trend Resumption vs Consolidation

**All Charts Created in TradingView

Read this week's ASEAN fundamental outlookto see how forecasts compare with technical analysis!

Check out our primer on what is in store for emerging markets ahead which may also impact these currencies!

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--- Written by Daniel Dubrovsky, Junior Currency Analyst for DailyFX.com

To contact Daniel, use the comments section below or @ddubrovskyFX on Twitter

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