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Dow Jones Drives to All-Time-Highs to Kick-Off Q4

Dow Jones Drives to All-Time-Highs to Kick-Off Q4

2018-10-03 17:51:00
James Stanley, Currency Strategist
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Dow Jones Talking Points:

- Enthusiasm continues to show in the US equity space as the Dow Jones Industrial Average has punched up to fresh all-time-highs in the first days of the fresh quarter. This continues a winning streak that goes back to the open of Q3 when the index was testing support at the 24k level. At this point, we’ve seen a 12.4% gain in the index from the June swing lows; a remarkable run from a number of vantage points.

- The concern continues to be one of positioning, as prices are fairly far away from any nearby support swings, complicating risk management for short-term approaches. What does remain as a workable option is a pullback to support at those prior all-time-highs, which could soon open the door for strategies of topside continuation.

- DailyFX Forecasts on a variety of currencies such as the US Dollar or the Euro are available from the DailyFX Trading Guides page. If you’re looking to improve your trading approach, check out Traits of Successful Traders. And if you’re looking for an introductory primer to the Forex market, check out our New to FX Guide.

Do you want to see how retail traders are currently trading the US Dollar? Check out our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Dow Starts Q4 With Fresh All-Time-Highs

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is starting off Q4 on a bright note, pushing up to fresh all-time-highs after what became a very bullish Q3. After testing support around the 25k level as we wrapped up June and traded into Q3, the Dow has now gained almost 3,000 points, or 12.4% from those prior June swing lows. A respectable run by almost any metric, and perhaps a bit too much, too fast, but that’s for another time as bulls remain firmly in-control here.

Dow Jones Daily Price Chart: Opens Q4 with Extension of Q3 Strength

Dow Jones Daily Price Chart dow djia dia

Chart prepared by James Stanley

Just last week it appeared as though a deeper retracement might be in order. This showed up around the FOMC rate decision on Wednesday, and going into the meeting, the index had put in a half-week of resistance from a descending trend-line. But, as we shared, this was likely corrective in nature, and the door remained open to bullish strategies as there was little evidence to suggest that the bigger-picture bullish trend was vulnerable to anything more than pullback.

Dow Jones Two-Hour Price Chart: FOMC-Fueled Pullback Gives Up to Gains, Fresh All-Time-Highs

Dow Jones two hour price chart djia dia

Chart prepared by James Stanley

As we trade into Q4, the bullish trend in US equities is alive and well. The item of consternation at this point is one of timing, as buying fresh highs whilst so far away from any recent points of support produces a challenge from a risk management perspective. This bullish trend is attractive, but not to the degree where the trader should throw their risk protocol out of the window for fear of missing out.

However – given the recent topside burst to fresh highs, another area of higher-low support potential has presented itself. This runs from the prior all-time-high of 26,700 up to the Monday swing-high of 26,745. If this is unable to hold higher-low support, the same zones we had used previously could remain as items of interest, and these reside around 26,416-26,474 and a bit deeper around 26,217-26,260. If we’re unable to hold above 26k, the stance should be re-evaluated as something in the bullish trend is amiss and forward-looking strategy should come into question.

Dow Jones Four-Hour Price Chart: Prior ATH for Higher-Low Support Potential

Dow Jones Four Hour Price Chart djia dia

Chart prepared by James Stanley

You may also be interested in:

The Dow Spends a Week at Support: Will Bulls Follow-Through?

Equity Forecast for Dow, S&P 500, DAX, FTSE and Nikkei

Day Trading the Dow Jones: Strategies, Tips & Trading Signals

To read more:

Are you looking for longer-term analysis on the U.S. Dollar? Our DailyFX Forecasts for Q3 have a section for each major currency, and we also offer a plethora of resources on USD-pairs such as EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD. Traders can also stay up with near-term positioning via our IG Client Sentiment Indicator.

Forex Trading Resources

DailyFX offers a plethora of tools, indicators and resources to help traders. For those looking for trading ideas, our IG Client Sentiment shows the positioning of retail traders with actual live trades and positions. Our trading guides bring our DailyFX Quarterly Forecasts and our Top Trading Opportunities; and our real-time news feed has intra-day interactions from the DailyFX team. And if you’re looking for real-time analysis, our DailyFX Webinars offer numerous sessions each week in which you can see how and why we’re looking at what we’re looking at.

If you’re looking for educational information, our New to FX guide is there to help new(er) traders while our Traits of Successful Traders research is built to help sharpen the skill set by focusing on risk and trade management.

--- Written by James Stanley, Strategist for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow James on Twitter: @JStanleyFX

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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