What’s inside:
- Table outlining one-week & one-month differentials, range expectations for major USD-pairs
- High differential for USD/CAD reflects expected volatility at this week’s BoC meeting
- One-week implied volatility at 7.90% (+1.5% > 1-mo), 1-stdev range of 12562-12840; risk of lower prices after Friday’s move
Find out how markets are expected to end the final weeks of the year in the DailyFX Trading Guides
In the following table, you’ll find implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-week and one-month periods. We’ve made not of the differentials, which can help shape expectations and/or identify currency pairs where the options market may be mispricing potential price movement in the short-term. Also outlined, are projected range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation of the current spot price looking out over the next week. (In theory, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds.)
USD/CAD one-week implied volatility pumped up ahead of BoC
One-week implied volatility (IV) for USD/CAD is currently at 7.90%, up significantly from the nearly 3-year low of 5.23% seen last month. Heading into Wednesday’s BoC rate announcement the differential between the one-week and one-month is 1.5%, easily the largest gulf among the major USD-pairs, with GBP/USD next up with a differential of 0.75%. The large differential reflects the anticipated volatility this week on not only the BoC, but also the U.S. jobs report on Friday to a lesser degree. Speaking of jobs reports, this past Friday Canada’s November report was a blow-out, which sparked the huge sell-off in USD/CAD just as it was nearing multi-month highs. The sudden, sharp downward momentum suggests we will see some additional follow-through. The support in the current vicinity looks at real risk of breaking in the days ahead. Looking to the projected range of 12558-12836, with momentum anticipated to beget more momentum the top-side level shouldn’t be at real risk of breaking. But with the projected low down near the long-term 2012 trend-line, we may not see an extension below that point, at least not all in one clip in the coming days. Friday’s move may have taken some of the fire out of the pair in the near-term.
For other currency volatility-related articles please visit the Binaries page.
USDCAD: Daily
Join Paul live each week; for details please see the Webinar Calendar.
---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst
You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.
You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.
