News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site.

0

Notifications

Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events

0

Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

0
Free Trading Guides
Subscribe
Please try again
EUR/USD
Bullish
Oil - US Crude
Bearish
Low
High
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
Wall Street
Mixed
Gold
Mixed
GBP/USD
Mixed
USD/JPY
Bullish
More View more
Real Time News
  • Consolidation or bull flag? A bull flag is a continuation pattern that occurs as a brief pause in the trend following a strong price move higher. Learn how to better spot these formations here: https://t.co/yOEvLjKnct https://t.co/qP2PbS4dsY
  • Are you new to trading? Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilising different forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Get a refresher on technical analysis or begin building your knowledge here: https://t.co/qV3c7a4YR3 https://t.co/POGWDIkqqz
  • USD hegemony is at risk thanks to changes in the global economy and the long-term consequences of the US-China trade war. Get your market update from @CVecchioFX here: https://t.co/5GO9UrvO4y https://t.co/H76jNJJxU5
  • Did you know a Doji candlestick signals market indecision and the potential for a change in direction. What are the top five types of Doji candlesticks? Find out https://t.co/c51s3IBcEu https://t.co/1TiEWCbJ6t
  • Use this technical analysis pattern recognition skills test to sharpen your knowledge: https://t.co/Qgz89PTxnu https://t.co/fN2mfHgpON
  • The formation of several bullish technical patterns suggests that the haven-associated Japanese Yen is at risk of further losses against the Euro and Australian Dollar. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/qxQwHgD9Ey https://t.co/ym73tgtHLn
  • Natural gas is moving lower after weather models pointed to warmer-than-average temperatures across much of the US. Get your market update from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/HuXPXu5PFU https://t.co/ytHqOoHnxQ
  • Gold and silver prices may continue to rise in the coming months on the back of falling real rates of return and the prospect of additional fiscal support under a Biden administration. Get your market update from @DanielGMoss here:https://t.co/OMNoNHn2vZ https://t.co/155l4SQU6P
  • Will the Swiss Franc find reprieve after recent losses against the Canadian and New Zealand Dollars as NZD/CHF and CAD/CHF uptrends face key chart barriers? Find out from @FxWestwater here:https://t.co/c89gcaNhTt https://t.co/vkLRsG8KEn
  • The Australian Dollar may be at risk of losses against the New Zealand Dollar after an unexpectedly high NZ inflation reading sent AUD/NZD towards challenging short-term rising trend support. Get your $AUD market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:https://t.co/JoaUMTv80S https://t.co/Hl4I8Gl7Ez
USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • BoC Governor Stephen Poloz speech at 15:45 GMT, USDCAD one-day IV at 14.81%
  • RBNZ rate decision at 20:00, NZDUSD one-day IV rises to 17.54%
  • Projected range highs/lows for both impacted pairs

The importance of trading psychology can’t be understated. Check out this beginner’s guide – Building Confidence in Trading.

In the following table, you’ll find implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we’ve derived the range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. Statistically speaking, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds.

USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

USDCAD one-day implied volatility rises to 14.81% ahead of Poloz speech

At 15:45 GMT time, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz will be giving a speech, which has very short-term implied volatility on the rise. At a one-day IV level of 14.81% the projected 1-stdev range from the current spot price is 12295-12487. Currently USDCAD is pressed up against a slope running down from June, but more importantly it is testing the underside of the broken 2012 trend-line. This presents a formidable area of resistance as a key event nears. It seems likely we would need a fairly dovish tone out of Poloz to push through this staunch area of resistance and to exceed the projected one-day high. If we do see a strong lift, the shorter-term trend-line off the 8/15 peak is in near alignment with the projected one-day high. Looking lower, there isn’t any confluence between the projected low and price levels, but if USDCAD is to find rejection at resistance we could see the projected low seen in today’s session.

Join Paul live each week; for details please see the Webinar Calendar.

USDCAD: Daily

USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

NZDUSD one-day implied volatility is currently at 17.54% ahead of today’s RBNZ rate decision

Later today, at 20:00 the RBNZ will decide on rates, with the central bank expected to keep its benchmark rate at 1.75%. The focus will likely be on the tone of the RBNZ and its new governor, Grant Spencer. Heading into this meeting, one-day implied volatility is a bit higher than it was going into the August meeting, which indicates an expectation for more volatility on today’s events. In August one-day IV was at 14.25% versus 17.54% today. Although, in recent trade implied volatility has been elevated on the back of some wild price action, so the current level isn't particularly high relative to recent history.

The projected range-low is 7137, which is of interest given the proximity to key price support going back to February and more recently on the final day of August. Additionally, the 200-day MA is only a handful of pips above price support. The projected low may very well hold as buyers step in at a fairly substantial level of support. Looking higher, nothing of interest particularly sticks out as resistance near the projected high of 7269.

For other currency volatility-related articles please visit the Binaries page.

NZDUSD: Daily

USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

DISCLOSURES