News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
of clients are net long.
of clients are net short.
Long Short

Note: Low and High figures are for the trading day.

Data provided by
More View more
Real Time News
  • When it comes to buying and selling forex, traders have unique styles and approaches. Learn about buying and selling forex here:
  • Slippage can be a common occurrence in forex trading but is often misunderstood. Understanding how forex slippage occurs can enable a trader to minimize negative slippage, while potentially maximizing positive slippage. Learn about FX slippage here:
  • What is your forex trading style? Take the quiz and find out:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • The results of this weekend’s German Federal Election will likely dominate Euro sentiment at the start of the week ahead but after a possible EUR/USD bounce they will have little long-term impact. Get your weekly $EUR forecast from @MartinSEssex here:
  • The Consumer Price Index, better known by the acronym CPI, is an important economic indicator released on a regular basis by major economies to give a timely glimpse into current growth and inflation levels. Learn how to better understand CPI here:
  • A currency carry trade involves borrowing a low-yielding currency in order to buy a higher yielding currency in an attempt to profit from the interest rate differential. Find out if the carry trade suits your trading style here:
  • Sterling continues to contract into trend extremes and the focus is on a pending breakout in the weeks ahead. Get your weekly $GBP technical forecast from @MBForex here:
  • Japanese candlesticks are a popular charting technique used by many traders, and the shooting star candle is no exception. Learn about the shooting star candlestick and how to trade it here:
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

Paul Robinson, Strategist

What’s inside:

  • BoC Governor Stephen Poloz speech at 15:45 GMT, USDCAD one-day IV at 14.81%
  • RBNZ rate decision at 20:00, NZDUSD one-day IV rises to 17.54%
  • Projected range highs/lows for both impacted pairs

The importance of trading psychology can’t be understated. Check out this beginner’s guide – Building Confidence in Trading.

In the following table, you’ll find implied volatility (IV) levels for major USD-pairs looking out over the next one-day and one-week time-frames. Using these levels, we’ve derived the range-low/high prices from the current spot price within one-standard deviation for specified periods. Statistically speaking, there is a 68% probability that price will remain within the lower and upper-bounds.

USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

USDCAD one-day implied volatility rises to 14.81% ahead of Poloz speech

At 15:45 GMT time, BoC Governor Stephen Poloz will be giving a speech, which has very short-term implied volatility on the rise. At a one-day IV level of 14.81% the projected 1-stdev range from the current spot price is 12295-12487. Currently USDCAD is pressed up against a slope running down from June, but more importantly it is testing the underside of the broken 2012 trend-line. This presents a formidable area of resistance as a key event nears. It seems likely we would need a fairly dovish tone out of Poloz to push through this staunch area of resistance and to exceed the projected one-day high. If we do see a strong lift, the shorter-term trend-line off the 8/15 peak is in near alignment with the projected one-day high. Looking lower, there isn’t any confluence between the projected low and price levels, but if USDCAD is to find rejection at resistance we could see the projected low seen in today’s session.

Join Paul live each week; for details please see the Webinar Calendar.


USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

NZDUSD one-day implied volatility is currently at 17.54% ahead of today’s RBNZ rate decision

Later today, at 20:00 the RBNZ will decide on rates, with the central bank expected to keep its benchmark rate at 1.75%. The focus will likely be on the tone of the RBNZ and its new governor, Grant Spencer. Heading into this meeting, one-day implied volatility is a bit higher than it was going into the August meeting, which indicates an expectation for more volatility on today’s events. In August one-day IV was at 14.25% versus 17.54% today. Although, in recent trade implied volatility has been elevated on the back of some wild price action, so the current level isn't particularly high relative to recent history.

The projected range-low is 7137, which is of interest given the proximity to key price support going back to February and more recently on the final day of August. Additionally, the 200-day MA is only a handful of pips above price support. The projected low may very well hold as buyers step in at a fairly substantial level of support. Looking higher, nothing of interest particularly sticks out as resistance near the projected high of 7269.

For other currency volatility-related articles please visit the Binaries page.


USDCAD, NZDUSD Options Vol Rises Ahead of Poloz Speech, RBNZ

---Written by Paul Robinson, Market Analyst

You can receive Paul’s analysis directly via email by signing up here.

You can follow Paul on Twitter at @PaulRobinonFX.

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.