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US Dollar Risks to the Downside on a Break of these Key Levels

US Dollar Risks to the Downside on a Break of these Key Levels

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

- US Dollar testing potentially pivotal levels versus the British Pound, Japanese Yen

- Further breakdown here makes a larger USD decline likely

- See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators

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The US Dollar continues to trade at pivotal support versus the British Pound, Japanese Yen, and other major FX counterparts. Where can it go on further breakdown?

EURUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Euro has traded above key resistance at the $1.10 mark yet failed to gain real traction as it stopped and reversed at $1.1100. Resistance remains at $1.11 and extends through major volume-based congestion in the $1.1250-1.1400 range, while support starts at $1.10 and extends through $1.08.

GBPUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The British Pound once again trades at key volume-based congestion at $1.5650, and a fourth failure at this level would keep focus on near-term support in the $1.54-$1.55 range Trading above the $1.5650 mark would open a move towards late-June highs near $1.5800.

USDJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar trades at almost exactly key volume-based congestion versus the Japanese Yen at the ¥123.50 mark, and a hold above leaves near-term targets at major highs near ¥125.50. Yet a failure here would open up a move towards comparable congestion levels starting at ¥121.50.

AUDUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Australian Dollar has failed to hold above key volume-based congestion starting at the $0.7400 and risks continue to favor the downside. Support is seen at recent lows near $0.7250, while a break above $0.7400 would instead target the next short-term at $0.7600.

GBPJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The British Pound continues to trade in a choppy range versus the Japanese Yen and currently stands at the top of a volume-based congestion range near ¥193. A failure here opens up a move towards congestion lows at ¥191.50, while resistance stands at monthly highs of ¥194.40.

EURJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Euro trades at significant congestion-based resistance versus the Yen near ¥137, and there is little in the way of comparable resistance until spike-highs of ¥138 and eventually the multi-month high of ¥141. Support stands at volume-based congestion near ¥135.

USDCHF

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar continues to hold below significant volume-based resistance against the Swiss Franc at SFr0.9650, and near-term support is seen at a previous price ceiling at 0.95. A close above SFr0.9650 would leave the April high near SFr0.9850 as the next important target.

USDCAD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar continues to trade near substantial highs versus the Canadian Dollar, and a recent build in volume and price-based congestion leaves C$1.2900-1.2950 as near-term support. Yet a break below would leave little in the way of a move towards considerable congestion starting at C$1.2750.

NZDUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The New Zealand Dollar has reversed sharply and now trades at important volume-based resistance at $0.6700, and a close above would leave little comparable price ceilings until the psychologically significant $0.7000 mark. A failure hear nonetheless keeps focus on major lows close to the $0.6500 level.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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