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US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

2015-06-30 16:10:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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- US Dollar may break down if it does not hold key support levels versus Euro, Sterling, Yen

- We’re watching these key levels for next cues

- See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators

Receive the Weekly Volume at Price report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.

The US Dollar has come dangerously close to failing at key support versus the Euro, Sterling, and Japanese Yen. Here are the levels we’re watching.

EURUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Euro plunged below significant volume and price-based support near $1.12 only to trade back to the same point soon after, and $1.12 remains the level in focus as it attempts a rebound. We’re watching these critical dates for Greece and the Euro for next clues on direction.

GBPUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The British Pound has bounced off of key support at $1.5650 mark, and our bias remains somewhat bullish as long as price remains above. Year-to-date highs just above $1.5900 represent the next upside target.

USDJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar has failed against the Yen at key resistance in the ¥123.50-¥124.50 range, and a failure has likewise taken it below recent lows of ¥122.60. Further volume-based support at ¥121.50, but trading below leaves major congestion near ¥119 as the next level to watch.

AUDUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Australian Dollar continues to hold just below important volume and price-based resistance at the $0.7800 mark, and a failure to close above leaves risks towards a retest of key support in the $0.7600-0.7650 zone. A break above $0.7800 offers little comparable resistance until major spike-highs near $0.8150.

GBPJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Sterling has traded below volume-based support at ¥193, and there are few comparable levels until major congestion at the ¥190 mark. Trading below would leave focus on key levels near ¥187.

EURJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Euro has broken below key volume-based support versus the Yen near ¥137, and further failure leaves focus on recent lows near ¥135.

USDCHF

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar has traded to fairly significant support versus the Swiss Franc at the SFr0.9300 mark, and a failure to stay above this level leaves focus on similar volume-based support near 0.9050. Resistance starts near substantial price and volume-based price ceilings starting at approximately SFr0.9450.

USDCAD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The US Dollar continues to trade below substantial congestion levels versus the Canadian Dollar starting at $1.2450, and staying below said level leaves focus on support at multi-month lows near C$1.2130.

NZDUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The New Zealand Dollar has traded below all notable volume-based support levels and has broken to fresh multi-year lows. Risks remain to the downside, and trading below July, 2010 lows of $0.6800 seems likely.

AUDJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Australian Dollar has tumbled below key congestion in the ¥95-95.50 range, but the breakdown produced a noteworthy bounce at ¥93. Resistance becomes ¥95 while ¥93 remains support.

EURAUD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The EUR/AUD has bounced at substantial volume-based congestion support zone in the A$1.4350-1.4500 range, and a hold above keeps focus on recent spike-highs near A$1.48-1.49. Yet a failure to hold above A$1.4350 opens up risks of a larger decline into the next congestion zone starting near A$1.4150.

EURGBP

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar May Break to Further Lows if it Fails at Key Support

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Euro/Sterling trades has held important psychological support at the £0.70, but it has thus far failed to trade to support-turned-resistance starting in the £0.7150-0.7200 range. Focus remains lower absent a break above the key price ceiling.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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