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US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

2015-05-12 14:10:00
David Rodriguez, Head of Product
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- Real trader volume shows the US Dollar has held critical support versus the Euro, Yen

- British Pound looks like a buy as it clears key resistance versus Greenback and JPY

- See more information on DailyFX on the Real Volume and Transactions indicators

Receive the Weekly Volume at Price report via PDF via David’s e-mail distribution list.

The US Dollar has held critical support versus the Euro and the Yen. Yet a break in the British Pound provides a potentially attractive USD-selling opportunity.

EURUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

Data source: FXCM Real Directional Volume Indicator, Chart source: R. Prepared by David Rodriguez

The Euro has rejected key resistance at the $1.14 level, marked by price congestion and an impressive build in real forex trader volume. A simultaneous drop in forex volatility prices suggests that few expect the US Dollar will break significantly beyond key levels, and indeed an immediate break above $1.14 seems less likely. Near-term support starts at $1.1090 and the Euro may trade in a relatively narrow range in the week ahead.

GBPUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The British Pound trades at potentially substantial resistance starting at $1.5650, and a break above leaves little comparable resistance until $1.6100. Near-term support comes in near $1.5400.

USDJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The US Dollar continues to trade above critical support versus the Japanese yen, marked by a substantial build in volume in the ¥118-119 range. A near-term break below seems less likely.

AUDUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The Australian Dollar trades above significant volume-based resistance that now acts as support at $0.7800. There seems little in the way of further resistance until $0.8200, and indeed risks remain to the upside.

GBPJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

An impressive rally in the Sterling leaves it significantly above meaningful resistance versus the Yen. Price targets are now post-financial crisis highs near ¥190, while support starts at ¥186.

EURJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The Euro trades below substantial volume-based resistance versus the Japanese Yen near the ¥137 mark which extends through ¥139. Our bias remains somewhat bearish as long as price trades below.

USDCHF

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The US Dollar trades at support-turned resistance near SFr0.9350 versus the Swiss Franc, and a failure at said level leaves 0.9050 as the next notable level of support.

USDCAD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The US Dollar has found notable volume-based support versus the Canadian Dollar in the C$1.2000-1.21 zone, but a break below leaves little in the way of comparable support until C$1.16.

NZDUSD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The New Zealand Dollar has broken significantly below key volume-based support at $0.7500, and subsequent price targets are now seen at multi-year lows near $0.7170.

AUDJPY

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The AUD/JPY trades at potentially significant volume-based resistance in the ¥93.50-95.50 range, and a sustained move above leaves little in the way of major resistance.

EURAUD

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The EUR/AUD has failed to break above key resistance starting near $1.4400, and a continued hold below leaves focus on minor support near $1.4100. Ultimately, however, risks seem weighed to the downside.

EURGBP

Total Buy Volume Executed, Total Sell Volume Executed, Net Volume Executed (Buy-Sell)

Length of bar indicates the sum of Buy and Sell volume.

US Dollar Holds Critical Support versus Euro, but Watch for GBP Gains

The Euro/Sterling trades below meaningful price/volume congestion in the £0.7200-0.7400, and the lack of comparable support leaves focus on key lows near 0.7100 and the multi-year trough of 0.7010.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX.com

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