News & Analysis at your fingertips.

We use a range of cookies to give you the best possible browsing experience. By continuing to use this website, you agree to our use of cookies.
You can learn more about our cookie policy here, or by following the link at the bottom of any page on our site. See our updated Privacy Policy here.



Notifications below are based on filters which can be adjusted via Economic and Webinar Calendar pages.

Live Webinar

Live Webinar Events


Economic Calendar

Economic Calendar Events

Free Trading Guides
Please try again
More View more
Real Time News
  • Global stocks bounce back from recent pullback as key resistance levels lie ahead. Get your weekly equities forecast from @HathornSabin here:
  • Do you know how to properly Identify a double top formation? Double tops can enhance technical analysis when trading both forex or stocks, making the pattern highly versatile in nature. Learn more about the double top formation here:
  • Dealing with the fear of missing out – or FOMO – is a highly valuable skill for traders. Not only can FOMO have a negative emotional impact, it can cloud judgment and overshadow logic. Learn how you can control FOMO in your trading here:
  • Bitcoin (BTC) started the day on the front foot on the Twitter news before the latest China crypto ban hammered the market lower. Get your weekly crypto forecast from @nickcawley1 here:
  • Greed is a natural human emotion that affects individuals to varying degrees. Unfortunately, when viewed in the context of trading, greed has proven to be a hindrance more often than it has assisted traders. Learn how to control greed in trading here:
  • Technical analysis of charts aims to identify patterns and market trends by utilizing differing forms of technical chart types and other chart functions. Learn about the top three technical analysis tools here:
  • The US Dollar continues to push higher against ASEAN currencies after the FOMC rate decision. This leaves the USD/SGD, USD/THB, USD/PHP and USD/IDR outlook mostly tilted higher. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The US Dollar seems to be back on the offensive against its major counterparts, pressuring EUR/USD and NZD/USD lower as USD/JPY consolidates. USD/CHF surges past key resistance. Get your market update from @ddubrovskyFX here:
  • The Japanese Yen remains in focus with strength potential on risk aversion themes to go along with weakness on themes around higher rates. Get your weekly $JPY technical forecast from @JStanleyFX here:
  • Google finance-related search interest in 'Evergrande' has almost overtaken 'Covid'. 'Taper' doesn't even register on the scale
We See Key Reasons Why Japanese Yen Might Surge Further

We See Key Reasons Why Japanese Yen Might Surge Further

David Rodriguez, Head of Product

Summary: The Japanese Yen has surged versus the US Dollar, the Euro, and other major counterparts. But why might this be the move we’ve been waiting for?

- Japanese Yen is top-performer versus major forex counterparts in the past two days

- Our retail forex positioning data warns this might be the start of much larger move

- Senior Strategist Kristian Kerr highlights a key cycle turn window in USDJPY

Big moves in the Japanese Yen suggest this may be the start of the larger reversal we’ve watched for, and the next moves in the USDJPY and EURJPY in particular could set the tone for JPY trading through the foreseeable future.

US Dollar Trades below Potentially Pivotal Support versus Japanese Yen

forex_trading_Japanese_Yen_might_finally_start_larger_rally_body_Picture_5.png, We See Key Reasons Why Japanese Yen Might Surge Further

Source: FXCM Trading Station Desktop, Prepared by David Rodriguez

Euro Trades at Similarly Pivotal Support versus the Resurgent Japanese Currency

forex_trading_Japanese_Yen_might_finally_start_larger_rally_body_Picture_6.png, We See Key Reasons Why Japanese Yen Might Surge Further

Source: FXCM Trading Station Desktop, Prepared by David Rodriguez

One critical factor we discussed yesterday was a material shift in retail forex trading sentiment, and our data suggests that the tide may have turned for the EURJPY and other JPY pairs.

Forex Trading Crowds Now at Biggest EURJPY Long Position since Key Turns

forex_trading_Japanese_Yen_might_finally_start_larger_rally_body_Picture_7.png, We See Key Reasons Why Japanese Yen Might Surge Further

Source: FXCM Trading Station Desktop, Prepared by David Rodriguez

What happens next could define Japanese Yen trends through the foreseeable future. And as a long-term JPY bear and US Dollar bull I argued that a USDJPY long position is my favorite trade of 2014. That remains true, but a substantial correction may in fact give me a better opportunity to get long at a lower price.

Indeed one factor very much worth noting is the fact that the recent Yen moves have coincided with a significant jump in volatility prices as seen through FX options markets.

Why is that significant? Put simply, it suggests that many derivatives traders are betting on and/or hedging against big currency moves in the days and weeks ahead.

Forex Volatility Prices Have Jumped as Traders Bet on/Hedge against Currency Moevs

forex_trading_Japanese_Yen_might_finally_start_larger_rally_body_Picture_8.png, We See Key Reasons Why Japanese Yen Might Surge Further

It will be critical to watch price action in the coming weeks as it could determine trends throughout the rest of the year. Follow any updates on the Japanese Yen and other currencies via this author’s e-mail distribution list.

--- Written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for David specializes in automated trading strategies. Find out more about our automated sentiment-based strategies on DailyFX PLUS.

Contact and follow David via Twitter:

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.