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EURNZD | AUDNZD | USDCAD - Lots of Room in Historical Ranges

EURNZD | AUDNZD | USDCAD - Lots of Room in Historical Ranges

2013-12-31 20:46:00
Jamie Saettele, CMT, CMT, Senior Technical Strategist,
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Talking Points

-Missed EURAUD, EURNZD may be potentially one year behind and is setting up

-Cycle analysis may see a turn in AUDNZD

-USDCAD poised for a bullish breakout, some say it’s because oil but USDCAD technical say it all

I can’t tell you what trades I am going to make in 2014 anymore than I can tell you the winning lottery numbers. I can, however, share with you ideas that could become trades at some point in 2014.

EURNZD Weekly

EURNZD_AUDNZD_USDCAD__Lots_of_Room_in_Historical_Ranges_body_Picture_3.png, EURNZD | AUDNZD | USDCAD - Lots of Room in Historical Ranges

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0.

Maybe EURNZD (NZD in general, see next chart) is a year behind EURAUD. A possible head and shoulders bottom has been forming since February 2012. This pattern is longer in duration than the EURAUD pattern that completed this year and therefore potentially more powerful. The pattern would ‘confirm’ above 1.7274. The measured objective would be 1.9583, which is also the 2011 high (1.9564).

From an Elliott perspective, the decline from that 2011 high is an ending diagonal. Ending diagonals are characterized by 5 overlapping waves that typically form converging lines (hence ‘diagonal triangle’). The reversal from the diagonal was confirmed on the break of the 2-4 line in December 2012. The objective is the origin of the pattern at 1.9564.

AUDNZD Monthly Close

EURNZD_AUDNZD_USDCAD__Lots_of_Room_in_Historical_Ranges_body_Picture_2.png, EURNZD | AUDNZD | USDCAD - Lots of Room in Historical Ranges

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

AUDNZD is nearing the bottom of the range that has held since 1979. In general, 1.0500-1.0700 is the support zone. Interestingly, the measured objective from the latest range is 1.0736 (1.1197 – (1.1659 – 1.1197).

Lows (monthly closes) have appeared roughly every 105 months, or 8.75 years. The January 1988 low is 105 months from April 1979. The cycle translated to the left in 1995 and 2002 although another low formed to the right of the cycle in 2005. For what it’s worth, the next cycle low date would be April 2014.

There is not even a possible setup at this point but if a bottoming pattern forms over the course of several weeks or months in 2014, then we’ll at least be aware that it could be significant.

USDCAD, USDNOK, and Crude Oil Weekly Closes

EURNZD_AUDNZD_USDCAD__Lots_of_Room_in_Historical_Ranges_body_Picture_1.png, EURNZD | AUDNZD | USDCAD - Lots of Room in Historical Ranges

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT using Marketscope 2.0.

USDCAD and USDNOK are attempting bullish breakouts to multiyear highs. Measured objectives are 1.1680 and 6.91145. In the case of USDNOK, know that the 2010 high rests at 6.7273.

Many like to cite the most recent move in crude oil as the reason for their bullishness or bearishness in USDCAD and/or USDNOK. I don’t care much for this type of analysis. If I’m trading USDCAD or USDNOK, then I will look at USDCAD or USDNOK. For those that want a story though, then maybe crude is ‘it’. In August, Black gold traded through its 2012 high by $2 and then declined nearly 20% in 3 months. Price has bounced from the line that extends off of the 2012 and 2013 lows. Resistance is seen at 102-104. A break of the mentioned trendline would expose lows from November 2012 and October 2011 at 84 and 77.

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