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Momentum Scorecard: Long EUR/USD or GBP/AUD Strongest Bets

Momentum Scorecard: Long EUR/USD or GBP/AUD Strongest Bets

2013-08-20 12:50:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Although there are no central bank policy meetings this week, there are still several central bank related events on the calendar that are influencing price action. Of note, the Reserve Bank of Australia signaled that its easing cycle was tentatively on hold, contingent on incoming data, which has hurt the Aussie.

Meanwhile, investors await the July FOMC meeting Minutes on Wednesday before placing long US Dollar bets for ’Septaper.’ As such, the European currencies have taken advantage of the quick turns in sentiment for these dollars, and look to extend recent gains over the coming 24-hours.

Momentum_Scorecard_Long_EURUSD_or_GBPAUD_Strongest_Bets_body_Picture_1.png, Momentum Scorecard: Long EUR/USD or GBP/AUD Strongest Bets

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TREND IN FOCUS: EURUSD (H4)

Momentum_Scorecard_Long_EURUSD_or_GBPAUD_Strongest_Bets_body_x0000_i1028.png, Momentum Scorecard: Long EUR/USD or GBP/AUD Strongest Bets

- If only to underscore how strong European currencies have been, both the British Pound and the Euro have perfect bullish scores: the EURUSD and GBPAUD both at +4.00.

- At +4.00, this indicates “full bullish time frame continuity” – when each timeframe covered (m15, m30, H1, H2, H4, D1, W1) has all of its moving averages in ascending order (8-EMA >21-EMA>55-EMA).

- With retail trader sentiment nearing all-time bearish extremes once more, our bias is to look to buy dips in the EURUSD.

- Resistance is close overhead, with the $1.3415/45 zone serving as staunch resistance on advances since February.

- A daily close above this zone would suggest further gains into 1.3590/610.

Read more: Euro Advances as Aussie, Kiwi Sink on Heightened Pre-FOMC Volatility

*Trend definitions: “uptrend” is defined as 8-MA>21-MA>55-MA; “downtrend” is defined as 8-MA<21-MA<55-MA; a “trendless” market occurs when continuity is absent.

*Scoring methodology: there are seven time frames, ascending from m15 (15-minutes) to W1 (one-week). In ascending order, each pair is assigned a value from -7 to +7 based on the trend apparent on the specified time frame (I.E. a m15 uptrend equals +1, whereas a H1 downtrend equals -3). If neither an uptrend nor downtrend is present, the trendless timeframe receives a score of 0. These points are totaled and the average is reported on the right. The strongest uptrend would achieve a score of +4.00, while the strongest downtrend would achieve a score of -4.00.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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