Economic data across Europe has been improving in recent months, with the 2Q’13 Euro-Zone GDP figure turning positive for the first time since late-2011. With bond yields remaining low, the shift in Euro-Zone fundamentals continues to ease the ‘safety’ role filled by the Swiss Franc. Accordingly, with technical momentum shifting bullish, there’s a case to be made for a strong EURCHF through the end of August.
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- The EURCHF has the highest bullish score among the pairs tracked in this report at +2.86. Conversely, the most bearish pair at present time is the GBPNZD at -2.14. Given recent British Pound strength, the EURCHF long trade is preferred.
- Daily RSI broke the downtrend off of the May and July highs on Tuesday.
- Daily Slow Stochastics (5,3,3) broke through the 50 level for the first time since early-July.
- Most importantly, the Symmetrical Triangle governing price action since March broke higher on Tuesday.
- The bullish shift is confirmed now that the EURCHF has traded above the three EMAs used, and there is full bullish time frame continuity with the 8-EMA > 21-EMA > 55-EMA.
- Price is approaching the early-July resistance zone at Sf1.2430/65; but a break is unlikely on the first attempt as the daily Slow Stochastics (5,3,3) have already peaked into overbought territory.
- Accordingly, I will be looking to ‘buy the dip’ on any pullback or consolidation seen so long as price holds above the 8-/21-/55-EMA structure.
*Trend definitions: “uptrend” is defined as 8-MA>21-MA>55-MA; “downtrend” is defined as 8-MA<21-MA<55-MA; a “trendless” market occurs when continuity is absent.
*Scoring methodology: there are seven time frames, ascending from m15 (15-minutes) to W1 (one-week). In ascending order, each pair is assigned a value from -7 to +7 based on the trend apparent on the specified time frame (I.E. a m15 uptrend equals +1, whereas a H1 downtrend equals -3). If neither an uptrend nor downtrend is present, the trendless timeframe receives a score of 0. These points are totaled and the average is reported on the right. The strongest uptrend would achieve a score of +4.00, while the strongest downtrend would achieve a score of -4.00.
--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst
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