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Momentum Scorecard: Euro Seen Lower versus USD, Higher versus AUD

Momentum Scorecard: Euro Seen Lower versus USD, Higher versus AUD

2013-07-03 11:30:00
Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
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Momentum_Scorecard_Euro_Seen_Lower_versus_USD_Higher_versus_AUD_body_Picture_1.png, Momentum Scorecard: Euro Seen Lower versus USD, Higher versus AUD

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TREND IN FOCUS: EURUSD (H1)

Momentum_Scorecard_Euro_Seen_Lower_versus_USD_Higher_versus_AUD_body_x0000_i1028.png, Momentum Scorecard: Euro Seen Lower versus USD, Higher versus AUD

- The EURUSD score has shifted negative to -2.00, the most bearish score among the currencies monitored.

- The weekly EURUSD uptrend broke today, now at neutral, suggesting that momentum is shifting lower over the medium-term.

- A potential daily Hammer suggests that a rally may be around the corner; but ultimately, we are looking to sell intraday rallies.

- H1 Slow Stochastics (5,3,3) are bullish; but bearish divergence is forming as the indicator approaches overbought levels without reaching relative price levels (yesterday seen above 1.3060).

- The 8-/21-SMAs have guided price lower the past 24-hours; a close above 1.2975 would indicate a countertrend move towards 1.3000/20, which might offer a favorable selling point.

*Trend definitions: “uptrend” is defined as 8-MA>21-MA>55-MA; “downtrend” is defined as 8-MA<21-MA<55-MA; a “trendless” market occurs when continuity is absent.

*Scoring methodology: there are seven time frames, ascending from m15 (15-minutes) to W1 (one-week). In ascending order, each pair is assigned a value from -7 to +7 based on the trend apparent on the specified time frame (I.E. a m15 uptrend equals +1, whereas a H1 downtrend equals -3). If neither an uptrend nor downtrend is present, the trendless timeframe receives a score of 0. These points are totaled and the average is reported on the right. The strongest uptrend would achieve a score of +4.00, while the strongest downtrend would achieve a score of -4.00.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

To contact Christopher Vecchio, e-mail cvecchio@dailyfx.com

Follow him on Twitter at @CVecchioFX

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DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.

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