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Momentum Scorecard: Euro Looks Lower against GBP, JPY, USD

Momentum Scorecard: Euro Looks Lower against GBP, JPY, USD

Christopher Vecchio, CFA, Senior Strategist
Momentum_Scorecard_Euro_Looks_Lower_against_GBP_JPY_USD_body_Picture_1.png, Momentum Scorecard: Euro Looks Lower against GBP, JPY, USD

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Momentum_Scorecard_Euro_Looks_Lower_against_GBP_JPY_USD_body_x0000_i1028.png, Momentum Scorecard: Euro Looks Lower against GBP, JPY, USD

- EURGBP has the most bearish intraday/intraweek score at -1.57; notably momentum behind all EUR-based pairs has stalled in recent days. Yesterday, I noted that the British Pound looked favorable against the Euro.

- The pair has broken down out of a Symmetrical Triangle dating back to mid-April, and the triangle base at £0.8400/10, coinciding with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the 2012 low to 2013 high, looks to be tested.

- ST moving averages have already turned over; a daily bearish crossover is imminent, which at present time would bolster the EURGBP bearish score to -2.43.

- Slow Stochastics (5,3,3) have entered oversold territory, suggesting that absent a sharp move lower, the EURGBP might endure some intraweek consolidation to clear out technical divergence and exhaustion; the preference is to sell rallies.

- The Euro looks weak overall, now that a slew of issues once forgotten are coming back into the foreground quickly. Indeed, the Euro-zone crisis may be more influential than previously believed over the coming months.

*Trend definitions: “uptrend” is defined as 8-MA>21-MA>55-MA; “downtrend” is defined as 8-MA<21-MA<55-MA; a “trendless” market occurs when continuity is absent.

*Scoring methodology: there are seven time frames, ascending from m15 (15-minutes) to W1 (one-week). In ascending order, each pair is assigned a value from -7 to +7 based on the trend apparent on the specified time frame (I.E. a m15 uptrend equals +1, whereas a H1 downtrend equals -3). If neither an uptrend nor downtrend is present, the trendless timeframe receives a score of 0. These points are totaled and the average is reported on the right. The strongest uptrend would achieve a score of +4.00, while the strongest downtrend would achieve a score of -4.00.

--- Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

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